COP30 presents plan to raise $1.3 billion annually to combat climate crisis

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) issued a report before the COP31 meeting, warning about the risks affecting 90 million displaced people in nations vulnerable to climate change.

The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) is scheduled to take place in Antalya, Turkey, between November 9th and 20th. This event occurs at a time when two global conflicts—the war in Ukraine since 2022 and the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States since the beginning of this year—are diverting attention from the issue of climate control.

Due to these focal points, a recent UN report, which points out that the planet has already exceeded the 1.5ºC global warming limit above pre-industrial levels defined in 2015 in the Paris Agreement, has received little media coverage. This agreement is seen as a historic milestone for preventing catastrophic and irreversible climate change.

The UN conference, co-chaired by Turkey and Australia, focuses on the evolution of the energy transition and the necessary financing for decarbonization, seeking to revitalize the objectives set out in the Paris Agreement.

To contextualize the discussions of COP31, several concepts were presented. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 at COP21, is an international treaty aimed at reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions so that global temperatures do not exceed two degrees Celsius (2ºC) above pre-industrial levels, preferably remaining below 1.5ºC.

Climate Change refers to modifications in the Earth's natural climate patterns caused by human activity, mainly by the massive release of carbon dioxide (CO2) resulting from the intensive use of fossil fuels. These effects include the melting of polar ice caps, desertification, species extinction, ecosystem destruction, forest fires, sea-level rise, droughts, and extreme floods.

Global Warming is the increase in the planet's surface temperature over the last hundred years, driven by human activity, especially the consumption of fossil fuels. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), every decade since 1980 has been warmer than the previous one, with 2024 being the warmest year ever recorded. The UN recognizes the possibility of temperatures rising up to three degrees by 2100.

Other terms addressed include the Ozone Layer, which protects the Earth from solar ultraviolet radiation; Fossil Fuels, such as oil, natural gas, and coal; and the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which organizes high-level meetings on environmental protection.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the commitments made by each country to reduce GHG emissions, following the Paris Agreement. Sustainable Development implies satisfying present needs without harming future generations, preserving nature. Carbon neutrality, or net-zero emissions, is achieved when the amount of GHG removed from the atmosphere equals that emitted by human activities, through source reduction and investment in forests.

The pre-industrial era refers to the period before the Industrial Revolution, consensually dated before the second half of the 18th century (1750). Extreme Weather Events are abnormal situations whose frequency is increasing due to human influence, such as heatwaves, severe droughts, and intense hurricanes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN warn about the increase of these events.

Greenhouse Gases absorb infrared radiation, warming the planet; although their production is natural, the burning of fossil fuels has increased it exponentially, with CO2 being the main one. Methane warms the Earth 80 times faster than CO2. The Carbon Market allows for the trading of emission credits between countries. Mitigation and Adaptation involve actions to reduce emissions (a global target of 50% by 2050 compared to 1990) and preparation for impacts. The Sustainable Development Goals are the 17 goals of the UN General Assembly's Agenda2030. Finally, Loss and Damage refers to the harm caused by climate change, a concept revisited in 2013 at COP19 in Warsaw.

The UN Refugee Agency has issued a warning about the serious dangers faced by 90 million displaced people residing in nations with high or extreme vulnerability to climate change.

In a report released four days before the start of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), which will take place in Antalya, Turkey, until the 20th, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) highlights that three out of every four people forced to move globally live in countries ravaged by intense droughts, fatal floods, and extreme heat.

According to the organization, it is imperative to implement immediate measures to protect millions of refugees and other displaced populations, given that financial resources allocated to mitigation initiatives (such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (to increase resilience to climate impacts) are not reaching many of the most exposed communities.

Antón Leis García, Deputy High Commissioner for Operations at UNHCR, emphasizes that refugees suffer a double injustice: they are forced to flee conflicts they did not cause and subsequently find themselves on the front lines of a climate crisis they contributed minimally to.

He argues that for millions of people, climate change does not represent a future threat, but rather a destructive reality that compromises housing, livelihoods, and the possibility of rebuilding their lives, calling for those who have already lost so much not to be neglected in the global climate response.

The document also signals the growing threat that climate change poses to the viability of permanent solutions for displaced people. UNHCR points out that more than two-thirds of refugees who returned during the first half of 2026 returned to countries extremely susceptible to climate disasters, raising doubts about the sustainability of these returns, citing Syria as an example.

Nearly 4 million displaced persons who recently returned to Syria have encountered declining groundwater levels and flooding along the Euphrates River, resulting in damage to homes and the displacement of thousands of people again, in addition to extreme heat being a growing threat, as the UN agency recalls.

Projections indicate that by 2050, one in three refugee camps in Sub-Saharan Africa may face at least 100 days of dangerous heat annually. More than half of the assessed locations may suffer from at least 50 extra days of dangerous heat per year, and in certain regions of Ethiopia, this condition could persist for over 200 days annually.

In the last decade, climate-related disasters have already caused over 255 million internal displacements globally, equivalent to approximately 70,000 people daily, but funding remains insufficient.

UNHCR regrets that fragile and conflict-affected countries receive only about 10% of global climate finance, despite hosting large contingents of refugees and internally displaced persons and facing severe climate impacts. The organization advocates for the urgent need for greater investment in climate adaptation, including return areas.

The situation will be a central theme at COP31, where UNHCR intends to call on governments and climate finance institutions to incorporate refugees and internally displaced persons into their national plans and approve larger contributions for long-term adaptation in vulnerable and displacement-affected areas.

Leis García considers the conference a crucial opportunity, given that Turkey, one of the world's largest refugee hosts, will host COP31, to consolidate the inclusion of the issue of displacement and the needs of host communities in the global climate agenda. He concludes that the event must serve as a turning point.

In the run-up to COP31, the climate goals recently presented by countries indicate a possible decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions of only 6% by the year 2035. This percentage represents a reduction ten times lower than what is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

This alert was issued by the United Nations (UN), which points out that despite the commitments made since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the planet is still far from controlling its temperature increase.

The assessment, released this Tuesday (27) by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), occurs shortly before COP31, scheduled to take place between November 9 and 20 in Antalya, Turkey.

The document analyzed 127 new national climate goals, known as NDCs, which were submitted between January 2024 and August 2026. These goals cover 154 participants in the Paris Agreement, including the European Union and its members, who are responsible for about 71% of global emissions recorded in 2019, excluding deforestation and land use changes.

According to the UN, even if all new commitments are fully met, global emissions will tend to be only 6% below 2019 levels on average by 2035. To keep warming within the 1.5°C limit, or with a small and temporary excess, emissions should fall by approximately 60% in the same period, according to estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The 1.5°C target was established by the Paris Agreement in 2015 with the aim of preventing severe climate impacts, such as droughts, sea-level rise, and glacier melt. However, recent studies suggest that the world may have already surpassed this critical point. To limit the temperature increase to less than 2°C, the required reduction would be approximately 37%.

The UN also calculated that if all actions planned in the new goals are fully implemented, including those depending on international support and funding, the reduction could reach 9% by 2035. Although these goals are the main mechanism of the Paris Agreement against the climate crisis, the document signals that global emissions may peak before 2030 and only begin to decline in subsequent years.

The projection indicates that the annual volume of greenhouse gases should be between 49.6 billion and 55.9 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2035. This metric allows for the summation of various gases, taking into account the warming potential of each.

However, the predicted reduction will still be insufficient to prevent the planet from exceeding the 1.5°C limit. Based on national goals and future projections, global warming could reach 3.2°C by the end of the century.

The UN report also offers a second estimate, considering countries' long-term objectives, such as the commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. In this scenario, projected warming would be between 1.7°C and 2.3°C by 2100, provided that countries meet their long-term goals and adopt reduction measures in the coming decades.

Additionally, the report warns that the CO2 emission limit compatible with the 1.5°C goal, known as the carbon budget, may be exhausted before 2030. According to the UN, this limit is about 130 billion tons of CO2 starting from early 2026, which is equivalent to approximately three years of current global emissions. In contrast, the forecast indicates that countries will emit about 368 billion tons of CO2 between 2026 and 2035, a volume almost three times higher than the limit available to keep warming at 1.5°C.

What has changed in countries' commitments

Despite the results presented, the UN recognizes that governments have incorporated more climate change combat initiatives into their national goals. Approximately 90% of the participating countries analyzed declared that they had taken into account the conclusions of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, held at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.

Furthermore, 99% of countries presented internal measures to reduce emissions, focusing primarily on the energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and waste management sectors. Energy transition is among the central priorities for countries, according to the UN analysis.

The percentage of participants who proposed modernizing electricity grids increased from 51% to 70%, while the proportion of those planning to expand energy storage rose from 33% to 56%. The report also highlights that 92% of participants included methane in their climate goals and 90% presented commitments related to land use and forests, such as reforestation and combating deforestation.

However, the advances show inequality. A second report, based on 137 national documents released this Tuesday, revealed that 61 participants progressed towards climate goals, while another 27 moved away from the objectives or showed mixed results. The UN emphasizes that such progress does not guarantee that countries are reducing their emissions at the necessary rate to meet agreements.

Adaptation and climate finance

Adaptation to the effects of climate change also gained prominence in the new goals. The UN reported that 86% of participants integrated measures in this area, aiming to protect food production, water resources, and health, in addition to preventing disasters.

Among these countries, 92% mentioned losses and damages caused by climate change, such as economic losses, infrastructure destruction, and deaths in extreme events, a number higher than the 56% registered in previous goals.

Nevertheless, the implementation of these measures faces obstacles. By October 2026, 81 developing nations had presented national adaptation plans, but 36 of the 41 plans evaluated among small island states and least developed countries were still in initial stages of implementation.

Financing remains a significant challenge. Global climate investments reached an average of US$ 1.9 trillion annually in 2023 and 2024, representing a 32% growth compared to the previous two-year period. Of this amount, only 9% was directed to international transfers to developing countries, corresponding to approximately US$ 183 billion annually.

Resources specifically allocated to adaptation totaled US$ 63 billion per year, which constitutes a 20% drop and represents only 3% of identified global climate financing. On the other hand, developed countries exceeded the promise to mobilize US$ 100 billion annually to support developing nations in 2023 and 2024, reaching US$ 132.8 billion and US$ 136.7 billion, respectively. It should be noted that this goal was originally supposed to be met in 2020.