Hindalco forecasts 5% increase in aluminum costs due to coal shortage
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Business Standard
business-standard.com

Hindalco forecasts 5% increase in aluminum costs due to coal shortage

Hindalco expects that the costs of aluminum production will increase by another 5 percent compared to the previous quarter in December, following a similar rise recorded in September. This was reported by Managing Director Satish Pai during media interactions after the publication of financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 27.

Hindalco Industries announced that coal supplies to its two aluminum smelters in northern India have decreased by almost half compared to the usual level, highlighting the pressure exerted by tightening fuel supplies to major industrial consumers.

According to Satish Pai, aluminum production costs in Q2 were 5 percent higher than in Q1, primarily driven by coal and calcined petroleum coke (CP Coke). Coal accounted for 50–60 percent of this increase, while CP Coke made up the remainder.

Expenses are expected to begin declining in the fourth quarter as the coal situation stabilizes and electricity consumption in northern regions decreases during the winter period. The company forecasts that coal availability in northern India will be limited in October and November, but an improvement is anticipated in the fourth quarter.

Hindalco, a flagship metallurgical company of the Aditya Birla Group, holds the position of the world's largest revenue generator in the aluminum sector and the largest copper producer in India. Furthermore, the company manages Novelis, a global leader in aluminum recycling, with operations in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia.

Pai noted that during the monsoon season in northern India, there was a coal shortage because heavy rains negatively affected production, and power plants required more fuel due to high temperatures. This created difficulties for the aluminum sector.

"As a result, we had to purchase many lots on spot market auctions where prices were very high," stated Pai, adding that the premium for coal auctions in the northern region reached 200 percent.

Hindalco has a coal reserve of 10–11 days at the Mahan smelter in Madhya Pradesh and Renukoot in Uttar Pradesh, whereas the normal level is 20–25 days. Conversely, at the Aditya and Hirakud plants in Odisha, reserves exceed one month, and no supply disruptions have been reported.

Pai clarified that before starting its own coal mines, Hindalco will rely on long-term agreements with Coal India and spot market auctions. It is expected that the Bandha and Chakla coal mines in Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand will begin supplying coal around the middle of next year.

Despite price pressures, Hindalco's upstream aluminum division, which is the company's main source of income in the second quarter, showed an EBITDA of 7,009 crore rupees, which is 55 percent higher compared to last year. The copper production business achieved a record quarterly EBITDA of 1,673 crore rupees, an increase of 164 percent year-on-year.

Novelis' adjusted EBITDA grew by 20 percent year-on-year to US$508 million. Pai reported that production at the Novelis plant in Oswego, USA, has returned to normal levels after disruptions caused by last year's fire.

Hindalco's downstream aluminum division reported an EBITDA of 329 crore rupees, which is 26 percent higher compared to last year. Pai believes that the downstream aluminum business will become a significant contributor to Hindalco's operations in India, generating over 2,000 crore rupees in EBITDA over the next two years.

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According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), published on October 29, demand for global air cargo transport in September 2026 increased by 7.7% compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, international cargo traffic showed an increase of 8.6%.

This demand growth was observed across all regions and was driven by strengthening global trade and industrial activity. Nevertheless, high aviation fuel prices continue to put pressure on airline profitability.

Demand Outpaces Capacity Growth

Overall demand, measured in tonne-kilometers of cargo (CTK), increased by 7.7% year-on-year in September. The world's available tonne-kilometers of cargo (ACTK) grew by only 2.7%, and on international routes—by 3.3%. Since demand grew faster than capacity, the global cargo load factor rose by 2.2 percentage points to reach 47.9%.

Marie Owens Thomson, Senior Vice President of IATA for Sustainability and Chief Economist, noted that cargo demand grew in every region. She linked this increase to more active global trade and production. Furthermore, shipments related to artificial intelligence contributed to double-digit growth on transpacific routes.

However, Thomson pointed to rising operating costs as the industry's main problem. Aviation fuel prices have more than doubled over the past year, while cargo revenue has failed to keep pace with this increase. She emphasized that despite having sufficient cargo for transport, maintaining profitability has become increasingly difficult due to persistently high fuel prices.

Fuel Prices More Than Doubled Year-on-Year

According to IATA, in September, aviation fuel prices rose by 17.5% compared to August and were 103.4% higher than in September 2025. Meanwhile, global trade volume increased by 3.6% year-on-year in August, marking 42 consecutive months of growth. World production activity also intensified during this month.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for world manufacturing rose by 0.7 points to 53.8, and the new export orders index increased by 0.5 points to 51.9. Both indicators reached their highest level in five years. IATA reported that these figures continue to create a favorable environment for air cargo demand.

Regional Dynamics of Cargo Transport

The strongest demand growth in September was recorded by North American carriers, where volumes increased by 11.8% year-on-year. Capacity in the region grew by only 0.8%, leading to an increase in the regional cargo load factor by 4.3 percentage points to 43.9%. In 2025, North America accounted for 24.6% of the global air cargo market.

Air carriers from the Asia-Pacific region, holding 35.8% of the market, reported an 8.6% increase in demand and a 4.9% growth in capacity. Their load factor improved by 1.7 percentage points to 50.7%. European carriers, whose share of the market is 21.4%, showed a demand growth of 4.5%, while capacity decreased by 1.6%. As a result, their load factor rose by 3.2 percentage points to 54.6%, the highest among regions.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, which account for 2.9% of the global market, demand grew by 6.7%, and capacity expanded by 7.6%. Consequently, the regional load factor decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 34.3%. African airlines, making up 2.1% of the market, reported a demand growth of 4.7% while capacity fell by 1.2%. Their load factor increased by 2.7 percentage points to 47.0%.

Middle Eastern carriers recorded the lowest demand growth among all regions. Demand increased by 3.8%, while capacity expanded by 7.0%, leading to a decrease in the load factor by 1.4 percentage points to 44.0%. The Middle East accounted for 13.2% of the global air cargo market in 2025.

Key Trade Routes Show Mixed Results

Cargo performance varied significantly on major international trade corridors in September. The Asia-North America route showed the strongest growth, with cargo volumes increasing by 17.0% year-on-year. This route, which accounts for 23.5% of the global market, is now showing its eighth consecutive month of growth.

Intra-Asian cargo traffic grew by 10.2%, extending its growth streak to 35 months. This corridor accounts for 7.3% of the market. Air traffic between Europe and North America increased by 9.3%, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion. This route represents 13.5% of the market.

The Europe-Asia corridor, which constitutes 21.5% of global cargo traffic, showed a growth of 6.0%, extending its expansion to 43 consecutive months. Freight flow between Africa and Asia increased by 2.6%, becoming the first month of growth for this corridor, which accounts for 1.3% of the market.

However, routes involving the Middle East continued to face significant pressure. Cargo volumes between Europe and the Middle East fell by 18.0% year-on-year; this corridor accounts for 5.2% of the global market. Traffic between the Middle East and Asia declined by 10.2%, with the route accounting for 7.4% of the market. Both of these corridors are now recording seven consecutive months of decline.

September data indicates that international demand for air cargo is supported by expanding trade and production activity, although high fuel costs and uneven regional dynamics continue to pose challenges for air carriers. IATA represents over 370 airlines, accounting for about 85% of global air traffic.

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