Elon Musk's investment in American elections and its possible impacts on Tesla and SpaceX

Elon Musk's companies, Tesla and SpaceX, suffered a combined devaluation of approximately US$ 456 billion, equivalent to about R$ 2.49 trillion, by the close of trading on Thursday (5). This drop in market value was motivated by the midterm elections in the United States, where Democrats gained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

On Thursday afternoon, SpaceX shares fell by about 9%, while Tesla stocks dropped by approximately 11%. This movement followed a broader selling trend in the technology sector but also reflected investor apprehension regarding the possibility of new Congressional investigations involving Musk and potential increased regulation applied to his corporations.

Since the close on Tuesday, the two companies had already lost more than US$ 420 billion (approximately R$ 2.29 trillion) in market value, reaching a combined loss of US$ 456 billion by the end of Thursday's trading.

Both Tesla and SpaceX are expanding their artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure activities in the state of Texas. One of the mentioned projects is Terafab, a large-scale facility planned to house a data center and a semiconductor factory in Grimes County.

Additionally, SpaceX plans to build a supercomputer at Starbase, the company's launch complex and business city located in Texas, as indicated in job postings released by the company.

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the imposition of stricter regulatory standards could delay the expansion of SpaceX's computing capacity in the state. Furthermore, the company may be required to increase its investments to comply with new guidelines related to the construction and operation of data centers.

Beyond the political pressure concerning AI infrastructure, Musk and SpaceX received instructions to retain documents related to restrictions imposed on a military version of the Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine. This information was reported by CNN, citing an advisor to a Democratic senator, and the restrictions were said to have compromised Ukrainian defense against Russian attacks.

This incident could intensify Congressional scrutiny over the company's actions and its role in national security matters. More severe oversight could also complicate Musk's plans to merge Tesla and SpaceX, although he has already expressed interest in this union, stressing that its realization would depend on shareholder approval.

The decrease in the companies' market value directly impacted Elon Musk's personal wealth. According to Forbes, his net worth, which had exceeded US$ 1 trillion (about R$ 5.46 trillion) after SpaceX's IPO in June, fell to less than US$ 800 billion (approximately R$ 4.37 trillion). The entrepreneur lost about US$ 90 billion (R$ 491 billion) in just one week, remaining, despite the reduction, the richest person in the world.

A hypothetical merger between SpaceX and Tesla could grant Elon Musk greater voting power in both corporations, bypassing the need to meet all conditions of his compensation plans.

Furthermore, such a transaction could alter the terms for receiving part of Tesla's stock package, valued at up to $1 trillion USD (5.4 trillion Brazilian reais).

Musk stated during a teleconference about SpaceX's results last month that the boards of directors of both companies have established special committees to discuss a potential merger.

Differences in compensation plans help illustrate the impact of a possible deal. In Tesla, the plan approved by shareholders in 2025 sets targets for market capitalization and operational goals, such as launching one million robotaxis. Currently, Musk has not met any of these goals.

Even if he meets all the goals, his voting share in the manufacturer would be around 29%, according to documents presented by the company's board.

The model in SpaceX is different. The compensation plan involves shares tied to goals such as establishing a colony of one million people on Mars and building space data centers. However, Musk received the corresponding voting rights immediately, although he does not yet have the economic value of these shares. This allows him to concentrate 85% of the votes in the company.

According to Barclays estimates, if SpaceX acquires Tesla, Musk would receive about 37% of the stake in the new conglomerate but would control 56% of the votes. This difference is possible because SpaceX's special class shares carry ten times more votes than common shares. Tesla does not have an equivalent structure.

Tesla's compensation plan includes special conditions for changes in control, such as a potential acquisition by SpaceX. In such a scenario, Musk could receive shares upon meeting market capitalization targets without achieving certain operational milestones.

Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.6 trillion USD (8.64 trillion Brazilian reais). To unlock the first part of the package, the value must reach $2 trillion USD (10.8 trillion Brazilian reais) due to the merger. At this level, Musk would receive $20 billion USD (108 billion Brazilian reais) in shares.

The calculation considers the stock price immediately before the deal or the amount shareholders receive from the deal, whichever is higher. The actual payout amount will be less, as the plan only accounts for the increase in stock value after the announcement made in September 2025.

The SpaceX plan is less detailed regarding what will happen in a merger. Four out of six executive compensation experts surveyed by Reuters believe that the board of directors could significantly change the terms of the agreement.

The package includes two sets of goals: one combines market capitalization targets with establishing a colony on Mars; the other links company growth to building space data centers capable of providing 100 terawatts of computing power per year.

Under the maximum forecast, the plan's shares could be worth $719 billion USD (3.88 trillion Brazilian reais), according to consulting firm Equilar, based on the current number of SpaceX shares.

The issue of voting rights at Tesla was previously raised by Musk himself. In October 2025, he stated that he was concerned about creating a large army of robots and subsequently the risk of being removed from company management.