According to information released by Olhar Digital, data provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) indicates that the El Niño phenomenon reached a historic warming level in October. The anomaly registered in the Niño 3.4 region reached 2.47 °C above average, surpassing the 2.07 °C level observed in October 1982.
Weekly measurements also set new records. In the Niño 3 region, the temperature registered 3.7 °C above average in the last week of the month, exceeding the 1981 mark. In the Niño 1+2 area, near Peru and Ecuador, the difference was over 4.6 °C, matching the peak of June 1983.
When the phenomenon was confirmed in June this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was already signaling a high probability of intense severity. At that time, climatologist Carlos Nobre, who holds a Ph.D. in Meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the USA and is internationally recognized for global warming, warned about the seriousness of the scenario of a possible 'Super El Niño.'
The specialist stated that 'The chances of this being one of the most intense events ever recorded are extremely high. Therefore, we need to be very prepared.' He emphasized that the global outlook has undergone drastic changes, given that continuous ocean warming and energy accumulation in the atmosphere cause extreme events, previously uncommon, to occur much more frequently in recent decades.
Inmet's temperature records confirm that temperatures in various parts of the country exceeded the limits of the last four decades, realizing the scenario predicted by specialists. According to Nobre, the phenomenon also reached unprecedented levels in oceanic measurements conducted since the 1950s.
This unprecedented thermal alteration profoundly modifies atmospheric dynamics. With warmer seas, evaporation increases, which drives severe and simultaneous events, exactly as the specialist had anticipated.
The North and Northeast regions feel the effect directly on humidity. The scientist explained that 'Typically, El Niño leads to a period of severe drought, heatwaves in the Amazon, and much of the Northeast, which is what is happening.' He added a warning, mentioning that due to the drought and heatwaves, vegetation becomes highly flammable, and organized crime is causing fires, most of which are illegal and intended for deforestation.
In contrast, the South of the country faces a situation of excess water. 'Instead of drought, there is excessive rainfall. Throughout Southern Brazil, even some part of Southern Mato Grosso do Sul, there is excess rain, as predicted.'
The warming also intensifies severe and atypical occurrences in the atmosphere of the Southern region. The researcher pointed out that 'There are also climatic phenomena, extratropical cyclones, low-pressure systems; they are stronger. And not just excessive rain, but strong winds are breaking records, as are tornadoes.'
Nobre stressed that the modification in the climate pattern imposes serious challenges on cities without adequate infrastructure. In the Southern states, there was a record number of tornadoes, something very rare in those locations. Thus, the entire system has never been prepared for tornadoes like those in the center-southeastern region of the United States, which historically present them.
To prevent future tragedies, the specialist advocates that the country adopt the urban protection models used in regions accustomed to such events in the United States. He cited the example of houses with underground areas, where people can shelter during a tornado, preserving themselves even if the structure is damaged by strong wind.
Physical mechanisms explain how ocean heat provides so much energy. With warmed oceans, evaporation is significantly higher, and the atmosphere reacts with faster winds in the southern hemisphere. This accelerated airflow enhances precipitation volumes. 'Rain in the Pacific, up to the coast of South America, increases significantly, and the phenomenon gains strength. This induces severe droughts in several places, especially in South America, the Amazon, and the Northeast.'
Additionally, a meteorological phenomenon occurs where the speed of the subtropical jet stream, the atmospheric wind current of the southern hemisphere, grows considerably when crossing South America. This increase in speed causes the air to rise with greater intensity, being a main factor for intense rains.
The specialist adds that the effects persist even after the official end of the phenomenon in the Pacific, as they are maintained by the warming of the Atlantic Ocean. This dynamic extends both periods of drought and extreme floods.
Given this complex scenario, prevention becomes crucial to protect millions of Brazilians. Data from the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) show that tens of millions of people live in areas susceptible to floods and landslides.
The survey details the exact proportion of the population exposed to risk in the national territory. The climatologist recalled a 2018 study that analyzed almost a thousand municipalities, measuring how many people were subject to excessive rain, flooding, flash floods, inundations, and landslides. Out of more than 100 million Brazilians assessed in that study, 10 million were in risk zones and 2 million in areas of very high risk, the latter of which should not remain there.
With historical records from October confirming the accelerated pace of climate change, the country must prioritize adaptation. The alert issued by the researcher summarizes the magnitude of the challenge presented: 'So, we have to be prepared because, with global warming, all hydrometeorological phenomena will be breaking records worldwide—and certainly in our country.'
