The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that October was the hottest month ever documented on the planet, with a global average surface air temperature 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The assessment conducted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that October was the third consecutive month to exceed the 1.5°C mark. Statistically, there is now a greater than 99% probability that the year 2026 will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second year to achieve this after 2024, which is already the warmest recorded year.
Specifically, in October 2026, the average surface air temperature registered 15.35°C, representing an increase of 0.90°C compared to the average observed between 1991 and 2020, according to Copernicus. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures remained at 'exceptionally high' levels during October, reaching 20.95°C outside polar zones, surpassing the previous record for that month set in 2023.
Samantha Burgess, ECMWF's Climate Strategy Lead, highlighted that 'October continued the pattern of notable global warming, with record global and surface ocean temperatures.' She added that a particularly strong El Niño is intensifying the heat in an already human-altered climate, and that 2026 is about to be the second calendar year above 1.5°C. Burgess also noted that the four-year average is expected to exceed 1.5°C, underscoring the persistence of this period of global warming.
The Copernicus analysis revealed that Europe recorded its second hottest October in its history. However, there were regional disparities: unlike September and much of the summer, temperatures were higher in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, while vast areas of Western and Central Europe showed lower thermal anomalies.
Regarding water resources, river flows remained 'exceptionally low' across much of Central and Eastern Europe, affecting rivers such as the Rhine, Danube, and Vistula. In contrast, some regions of Western Europe saw a recovery in flows as drought conditions in October improved compared to September, with heavy rains and flooding affecting several countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Turkey.
Sea surface temperatures also remained at record levels for October along the Atlantic coast and in the western Mediterranean, contributing to the warming of neighboring continental areas.


