The head of the South African Automobile Association, Bobby Ramagvede, warned that South Africa's automotive manufacturing industry could be undermined within five years if the country does not define a clear political direction.
Ramagvede stated that if the current trend allowing uncontrolled importation of vehicles, including Chinese models, continues, the sector will be destroyed. He conveyed this to William Kelly during the Watts & Wheels automotive show at TechCentral.
Ramagvede, who has held the position of CEO of AA since October 2024, spoke openly about major automakers. He noted that BMW operates in South Africa 'because they are doing us a favor,' and Toyota has 'found a comfortable home.' In his view, Volkswagen is 'sitting on the edge of its seat, probably ready to leave,' while Mercedes-Benz has 'already put one foot out the door.'
He added that he cannot blame anyone because 'we have not decided what our political direction is.' Imports are gaining momentum: according to a TechCentral analysis, in October, Chinese brands accounted for 19.3% of passenger and light commercial vehicle sales among reporting manufacturers, up from 16.1% the previous year. Furthermore, Chery took over the Nissan plant in Rosslyn near Pretoria in July.
Automakers who responded to the statement emphasized their commitment to the market. Andile Dlamini, Head of Corporate Communications for VW, said he was interested in hearing the justification for Ramagvede's assessment regarding Volkswagen. He confirmed that Volkswagen is committed to South Africa, and the Kariega plant produces Polos for export to approximately 38 countries, and plans to launch the compact crossover Tengo in February 2027 following a R4 billion investment announced in April 2024.
BMW stated that its presence is based on commercial considerations. The Rosslyn plant produced over 79,000 vehicles in 2025 and is the only BMW plant producing the plug-in hybrid X3 for international markets, citing a R4.2 billion investment announced in 2023. Toyota stated that it cannot make predictions about specific timelines, but its 'commitment to local production remains unwavering,' noting an investment of R10.4 billion in its Prospecton plant for the new Hilux model.
BMW, Toyota, and Ford called for political certainty. Mercedes-Benz South Africa did not respond at the time of writing. Great Wall Motor confirmed in March that it was negotiating a Mercedes plant in Kugombo (formerly East London), but in August, Mercedes confirmed that the plant would produce the updated C-Class.
Naamsa, which represents vehicle manufacturers and importers, also disputes this five-year timeline. Chief Policy Specialist Tshitele Litheko told TechCentral that 'we will not characterize the future of the industry through a five-year countdown.'
Political Chaos
Ramagvede noted that the industry contributes about 5% to GDP, aligning with the 5.3% mentioned by President Cyril Ramaphosa last year. He warned that allowing the industry to collapse without a clear plan to save those affected would be reckless. He compared the situation to Australia, which allowed production to shrink until the closure of its last plant in 2017, noting that the Australian approach was 'somewhat more systematic and structured.' In South Africa, however, there is a 'mix of politics that we have allowed to just develop.'
Manufacturers also face challenges such as unstable power supply, 'questionable water supply,' and poor roads, which, in Ramagvede's opinion, prevent them from remaining in the market. He specifically mentioned Ford, which produces its Ranger pickup in Silverton, Pretoria. He asked where the company would manufacture if not here, pointing to Thailand. Ramagvede predicted that if South Africa signed a free trade agreement with Thailand, Ford's local production share would be 'practically zero.'
Ramagvede also used Thailand as a warning: by the end of 2025, Chinese manufacturers captured 89% of the country's electric vehicle market, according to Rhodium Group. Following this, Subaru and Suzuki ceased production there, and Ford Thailand agreed to acquire the former Suzuki plant in Rayong. He concluded that someone in the government would say: 'Oh, we didn't expect this.'
Ford rejects this scenario. Niall Hill, President of Ford's African operations, stated that speculation about a drop in Ford's production volume in South Africa to 'practically nothing' does not reflect the company's position or its current plans. He clarified that Silverton exports the Ranger to over 100 markets, and acquisitions outside of South Africa 'do not change our current plans for production in South Africa.'
Awaiting Budget
Tshitele Litheko noted that the industry views the 2027 budget speech as a critical stage for gaining clarity on the outcomes of the automotive policy review. The priority, he said, is a 'consistent policy package with clear implementation deadlines.' Naamsa also takes a softer stance on imports, arguing that 'imports contribute to consumer choice and availability.'
Ramagvede stressed that he is not advocating for production for production's sake. He said he would not object to abandoning production if presented with a clear strategy that could capture 5% of GDP and transform it into something else, asking, 'What are you going to do, dig up more?'
