Central Bank of Uzbekistan forecasts GDP growth at 7–7.5% in 2027

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided to keep the key interest rate at 14% per annum. This decision was made against the backdrop of sustained domestic demand and persistent concerns about price growth.

However, the regulator adjusted its forecasts: expected economic growth by the end of 2026 has been increased to 8%, and the inflation forecast—to 7%.

Overview of the Current Economic Situation

Explanations from the Central Bank indicate that despite some decrease in inflation expectations, price pressure in the economy remains significant. In September, annual inflation stood at 6.4%, which is higher than the 6.2% recorded in August. The acceleration of inflation is attributed to the rising cost of fuel, fruits and vegetables, and certain types of services. Inflation in the services sector reached 7%, while core inflation remained at 5.5%.

Inflation expectations among the population for the next year decreased to 8.7%, and among entrepreneurs—to 9.2%. Nevertheless, the regulator warns of risks to the domestic market related to the high volatility of global prices for energy resources and food, as well as potential increases in regulated tariffs.

Revision of Macroeconomic Forecasts

The Central Bank also revised its economic forecasts. In the first nine months of 2026, Uzbekistan's GDP showed growth of 8.3%. Thanks to active investment activity, development of the construction industry, industry, and the service sector, overall economic growth by the end of the year is now projected at around 8%.

The inflation forecast for the end of the year was raised from an initial 6.5% to 7%. Despite this increase, the Central Bank plans to reach the target inflation rate of 5% by the end of 2027. To control price growth, the regulator intends to maintain a tight monetary policy. The next meeting regarding the key rate is scheduled for December 16.

It was previously noted that in September, consumer prices in Uzbekistan increased by 0.7%, with the largest growth recorded for specific vegetables, fuel, and education services.

According to data from the National Statistical Committee of Uzbekistan, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Uzbekistan reached 1,755.5 trillion soums at current prices for January-September 2026. This represents a real growth of 8.3% compared to the same period in 2025. Preliminary data was published on October 30, 2026.

Previously, figures for January-September 2022-2025 were adjusted to account for the results of population and agricultural censuses. For comparison, in the first nine months of 2025, GDP was 1,494.9 trillion soums with a growth of 8.0%, while in the same period of 2024, the economy grew by 6.1%, reaching 1,224.4 trillion soums.

The GDP deflator for January-September 2026 was 108.4% relative to the previous year. The highest growth rates were recorded in industry (112.1%) and other service activities (109.7%). Agriculture, forestry, and fishing were below the national average at 107.8%; trade and accommodation/food services were at 106.4%; construction was at 105.5%; and transport, storage, information, and communication were at 103.1%.

Gross value added across all sectors accounted for 95.9% of GDP and increased by 8.3%, contributing 7.9 percentage points to the overall GDP growth. Net taxes on products accounted for the remaining 4.1% of GDP, showing an 8.4% increase and contributing 0.4 percentage points to the growth increase.

Industry generated added value of 450.4 trillion soums, showing a growth of 8.1%. Trade and accommodation/food services provided 247.1 trillion soums, which is 15.1% more. Each of these sectors contributed 2.0 percentage points to GDP growth. Transport, storage, information, and communication brought in 135.4 trillion soums, increasing by 18.1% and adding 1.4 percentage points. Construction reached 140.2 trillion soums, increasing by 12.5%, and contributed 1.0 percentage point to the growth.

Other service activities added 448.5 trillion soums, increasing by 3.2% and providing 0.8 percentage points of GDP growth. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing generated 261.7 trillion soums, showing a growth of 4.6%, and contributed 0.7 percentage points. Compared to January-September 2025, the share of industry in the economy rose from 26.0% to 26.8%, while the share of construction increased from 8.2% to 8.3%. The share of services decreased from 49.6% to 49.4%, and the share of agriculture, forestry, and fishing decreased from 16.2% to 15.5%.

Industrial added value grew by 8.1% to 450.4 trillion soums. The main driver of growth was manufacturing, where added value increased by 8.6% to 373.1 trillion soums. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production grew by 10.1% to 29.8 trillion soums. Mineral extraction and quarrying increased by 3.1% to 44.4 trillion soums, while water supply, sewerage, waste collection, and disposal grew by 1.6% to 3.1 trillion soums.

The total volume of construction works increased by 12.5%, and added value in construction amounted to 140.2 trillion soums. Growth was observed in building and structures construction at 6.6%, civil engineering works at 29.0%, and specialized construction works at 33.1%. At the same time, the share of buildings and structures in the construction sector decreased from 75.3% to 71.3%. The share of civil construction increased from 16.2% to 18.1%, and the share of specialized construction works rose from 8.5% to 10.6%.

Added value in the service sector reached 831.0 trillion soums, which is 8.9% higher compared to last year. The fastest growth was demonstrated by communication and information services, which expanded by 21.6%, followed by trade with a growth of 17.3% and transport, storage, with an increase of 16.1%. Accommodation and food services grew by 11.2%, and other services by 3.2%.

Retail trade, excluding motor vehicle sales, accounted for the largest share of trade added value—48.3%, compared to 48.9% the previous year. Wholesale trade accounted for 40.1%, down from 40.3%, and wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles and their repair accounted for 11.6% versus 10.8%.

Transport and storage accounted for 5.0% of GDP. Road transport held the largest share of added value in this sector—57.4%, compared to 55.0% the previous year. Auxiliary transport activities accounted for 18.1%, air transport for 8.7%, rail transport for 8.5%, and pipeline transport for 7.3%.

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing grew by 4.6%. Forestry increased by 5.0%, and crop and livestock production by 4.6%. GDP per capita reached 44.6923 million soums, which is 6.4% higher in real terms compared to the first nine months of 2025, when it was 38.7468 million soums.

The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector accounted for 2.7% of the economy, up from 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2024. The added value of this sector reached 45.5 trillion soums, up from 35.8 trillion soums the previous year and 23.7 trillion soums in 2024. Computer programming, consulting, and related services accounted for 54.0% of ICT added value. Communication services accounted for 29.2%, data hosting and processing, and web portals for 10.0%, software publishing for 4.2%, and computer and communication equipment repair for 2.6%.

Small businesses generated 904.8 trillion soums in added value, accounting for 53.8% of the total economy. Of this amount, services accounted for 46.7%, agriculture, forestry, and fishing for 27.0%, industry for 14.6%, and construction for 11.7%. Small businesses provided 93.2% of the added value in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, 75.4% in construction, 50.9% in services, and 29.4% in industry.

The share of the unobserved economy, including household and individual activities, as well as the shadow economy, was 21.8% of GDP, lower than the previous year's figure of 23.9%. By sector, the unobserved economy accounted for 57.6% of added value in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, 23.8% in services, 8.3% in construction, and 4.9% in industry.

According to preliminary data from the National Statistical Committee, Uzbekistan's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 1,755.5 trillion soums at current prices during the period from January to September 2026. This represents a real growth of 8.3% compared to the same period last year.

The service sector contributed the most to GDP growth, increasing by 8.9%, adding 4.2 percentage points to the overall growth. Specifically, trade, including accommodation and food services, expanded by 15.1%, while transport, storage, information, and communication services grew by 18.1%. Other services showed growth of 3.2%.

Industry increased by 8.1%, contributing an increase of 2.0 percentage points to GDP. Construction activity grew by 12.5%, adding 1.0 percentage point. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing increased by 4.6%, contributing 0.7 percentage points. Net taxes on products grew by 8.4%, accounting for 0.4 percentage points.

During the first nine months of 2026, industrial enterprises in Uzbekistan produced goods worth 1,085.7 trillion soums, reflecting an 8.1% growth in industrial production compared to the previous year. Manufacturing accounted for 86.9% of total industrial output, while mining and quarrying accounted for 6.5%.

Other sectors included electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production (6.0%) and water supply, sewerage, waste collection, and disposal (0.6%). All major industrial segments showed growth: manufacturing grew by 8.6%, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production by 10.1%, mining and quarrying by 3.1%, and water resource management, sewerage, and waste by 1.6%.

Growth in manufacturing was supported by an increase in the production of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified, which reached 148.9% of the January–September 2025 level. Output of other transport equipment reached 133.9% of last year's level, and output of other finished goods reached 132.3%. However, tobacco product output decreased to 83.4% of the year-ago level.

The total volume of agricultural, forestry, and fishing products and services amounted to 465.346.7 billion soums, equivalent to 104.6% of the level recorded in January–September 2025. Agricultural production, livestock farming, hunting, and related services generated 416.344.7 billion soums, or 104.7% of the previous year's level.

Forestry contributed 41.253.3 billion soums, corresponding to 105.0%, and fishing contributed 7.748.7 billion soums, or 101.2%. The main driver of growth was the 4.6% increase in agricultural production. Among all categories of farms, vegetable production grew by 3.6%, grain production by 16.3%, potatoes by 6.6%, and melon production by 4.5%.

In the agricultural sector, 62.2% of the volume was comprised of dehqan and household farms, 26.7% were farms, and 11.0% were agricultural organizations.

Consumer inflation during the period from January to September 2026 was 4.2%. Food price growth averaged 2.9%, contributing 1.19 percentage points to the overall inflation. Non-food goods prices rose by 4.6%, adding 1.50 percentage points, while services increased by 5.6%, adding 1.48 percentage points.

Among consumer basket categories, the largest price increase compared to December 2025 was recorded in insurance and financial services, where the index reached 143.9%. Clothing and footwear showed the lowest index—101.9%. Household services, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, along with food and non-alcoholic beverages, contributed the largest aggregate share to the rise in consumer prices, amounting to 2.25 percentage points, or 54.0% of the total impact.

The volume of fixed capital investment from all sources of financing reached 584.154.2 billion soums, exceeding the level recorded for the same period in 2025 by 120.1%. Foreign direct investment and loans accounted for 63.6% of total investments, including 38.9% from foreign direct investment.

Household funds accounted for 12.3%, enterprise equity—11.6%, loans guaranteed by Uzbekistan—6.2%, the republican budget—4.3%, commercial bank loans and other borrowed funds—1.3%, and the Reconstruction and Development Fund—0.7%. The fastest growth was noted in investments financed by the Reconstruction and Development Fund, which reached 236.2% of the 2025 level, as well as in foreign loans guaranteed by Uzbekistan, which grew by 154.0%.

Investments financed by the republican budget reached 123.7% of the previous year's level. Commercial bank loans and other borrowed funds grew by 123.1%, foreign direct investment and loans by 120.5%, foreign direct investment itself by 120.5%, household funds by 111.0%, and enterprise equity by 109.9%.

The volume of construction works reached 339.328.2 billion soums, demonstrating a growth of 12.3%. Large enterprises and organizations completed work worth 89.542.7 billion soums, accounting for 26.4% of the total volume. Small enterprises and microfirms contributed 171.669.8 billion soums, or 50.6%, while informal sector entities provided 78.115.7 billion soums, or 23.0%.

Retail turnover reached 432.161.2 billion soums, which is 19.7% higher than last year. Large enterprises accounted for 17.8% of turnover, with their sales increasing by 12.3%. Retail turnover among small businesses grew by 20.4%, and the share of small businesses in the total volume reached 71.9%. Sales through unorganized trade amounted to 44.463.3 billion soums, which is 10.3% of the total retail turnover.

Uzbekistan's external trade volume reached 65.4 billion US dollars, which is $3.9 billion, or 6.3%, more compared to January–September 2025. Exports amounted to 25.8 billion US dollars, decreasing by 5.5%, while imports increased by 15.7% to reach 39.6 billion US dollars.

Goods accounted for 62.4% of exports. Manufactured goods represented 14.1%, other machinery products—10.2%, and chemical products and related goods—7.9%. Machinery and transport equipment accounted for the largest share of imports (32.5%), followed by manufactured goods (13.8%) and chemical products and related goods (12.1%).

The value of market services reached 1.003 trillion soums, which is 16.7% more than last year. Trade contributed the most to growth, increasing by 17.4% and providing 4.0 percentage points. Financial services expanded by 22.0%, adding 3.4 percentage points; transport services grew by 16.4%, adding 2.8 percentage points; accommodation and food services increased by 11.3%, adding 2.1 percentage point; and communication and information services grew by 21.4%, adding 1.6 percentage points.

Trade services generated the largest volume, amounting to 235.284.4 billion soums, equivalent to 117.4% of the previous year's level. Accommodation and food services reached 179.704.5 billion soums, or 111.3%; financial services reached 163.753.5 billion soums, or 122.0%; and transport services amounted to 162.833.9 billion soums, or 116.4%.

As of October 1, 2026, there were 621,100 enterprises and organizations operating in Uzbekistan, including 459,100 small enterprises and microfirms, excluding farms and dehqan households. Tashkent city had the highest number of such entities—118,860, followed by Tashkent region (59,191), Samarkand region (57,237), Fergana region (52,326), Kashkadarya region (47,969), Andijan region (37,943), and Bukhara region (37,469).

By economic activity, the largest number of enterprises belonged to trade (170,555), followed by agriculture, forestry, and fishing (135,411), industry (66,001), accommodation and food services (35,439), and construction (34,451). During the first nine months of 2026, 68,500 new enterprises and organizations were created, including 66,300 small enterprises and microfirms.

There were 22,029 enterprises with foreign capital in the country, of which 4,851 were joint ventures and 17,178 were foreign-owned enterprises.