Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew 34,843 crore Indian rupees from the Indian stock market in October, marking the second consecutive month of significant capital outflow. This outflow occurred amid concerns related to high crude oil prices, global interest rates, and corporate earnings forecasts.
Nevertheless, at the end of October, foreign investors reversed their position to buyers, investing about 6,300 crore rupees between October 26 and 30. This contrasts with a net outflow of nearly 2,700 crore rupees during the week ending October 23.
According to data from the Central Depository Services (CDSL), FPIs withdrew 35,861 crore rupees in September. Previously, they had invested 20,200 crore rupees in July and 29,631 crore rupees in August. Including the latest withdrawals, the cumulative outflow of FPIs from Indian equities in 2026 reached 2.95 trillion rupees.
Market experts note that the recent improvement in flows signals a shift in short-term sentiment, but one week of buying does not guarantee a sustained reversal.
Forecasts and influencing factors
Anat K Rathi, co-founder of MIRA Money, stated that overall, foreign selling remained substantial throughout October, reflecting concerns over elevated crude oil prices, global interest rates, and prospects for corporate profits. He added that higher crude oil prices create risks for inflation and the margins of Indian companies, while attractive yields in the US continue to influence global capital allocation.
Rathi emphasized that the sustainability of the recent improvement in foreign flows will depend on greater clarity regarding global macroeconomic conditions, crude oil prices, and earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors played a crucial role in absorbing foreign selling and maintaining market stability.
In the three out of four trading sessions concluding on October 30, FPIs acted as net buyers in the money market, indicating a possible improvement in their view of Indian stocks.
Vikeyakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, suggested that the US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, the attractive valuation of large Indian stocks, and signs of steady domestic economic growth may have contributed to the change in investor sentiment. He also noted that the weakening of global AI trade could be another factor affecting portfolio allocation.
The improvement in FPI flows also helped the Nifty index recover to the 23,000 level. Vikeyakumar added that while foreign investors continued to sell financial stocks of large companies, they selectively accumulated pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks, as well as individual digital platform companies.
Pabitra Mukerjee, Deputy Vice President of Research at Bajaj Broking, believes that the turnaround in FPI flows is encouraging for market sentiment, although higher crude oil prices and global event risks may limit momentum.
Market participants will closely watch the results of the US midterm elections next week, as well as the movement in Brent crude oil prices, the escalation of conflicts between the US and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine, alongside current quarterly earnings announcements. These factors are predicted to remain key drivers of investor sentiment in the near term.



