Climate change may require a review of South Africa's agricultural regions

Researchers from the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) explained how shifting crop production to new suitable areas can enhance food security and economic returns amid rising climate risks in South Africa.

As temperatures rise and rainfall patterns become less predictable, some traditional agricultural zones in South Africa may become unsuitable for growing current crops. New research suggests that a careful transition to new suitable areas could bring economic, employment, and food benefits, although the optimal solution will depend on the specific crop.

Agricultural lands, such as maize fields, wheat farms, or citrus orchards, cannot simply move due to climate change. Nevertheless, in the coming decades, South African agriculture may need to reconsider not only cultivation methods but also where crops are grown.

Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, water stress, and increased extreme weather events are already increasing uncertainty for farmers. A region that has supported a particular crop for decades may not provide the same growing conditions in 2055 or 2080.

This raises a complex but increasingly pressing question: is it economically viable to gradually shift some agricultural production to areas expected to remain or become more suitable under changing climate conditions?

ARC researchers studied this issue for six important South African agricultural products: maize, wheat, sorghum, citrus, avocado, and macadamia. The study combined climate and crop suitability modeling with cost-benefit analysis.

Simply put, scientists compared the long-term value that could be created by relocating some production against the costs of establishing and operating farms in new locations. The results contain both encouragement and caution. Shifting production can be a justifiable strategy for climate change adaptation, but its feasibility depends on the climatic requirements, water needs, production cycle, infrastructural needs, and market prospects of each crop.

Relocating production does not imply an immediate abandonment of established South African agricultural areas. It means planning a gradual transition as climate suitability changes. The study modeled a hypothetical scenario where 10% of the current production area for each crop moves to new suitable agro-ecological zones. This percentage is a modeling assumption to test the potential economics of adaptation, not a recommendation to relocate 10% of national production.

The analysis considered future climate conditions centered on 2030, 2055, and 2080, within moderate and high emission scenarios, assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation over 30 years. Depending on the crop and climate scenario, the modeling identified potential opportunities in cooler and higher altitude areas, including parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and Free State. These areas represent modeled possibilities, not farm-level recommendations.

These broad zones should not be viewed as farm-level planting recommendations. Before making any investment decision, local water availability, soil quality, infrastructure, market access, and land use conditions must be examined. It is also necessary to consider whether the receiving areas possess the necessary infrastructure, water resources, services, and institutional capacity to support additional agricultural production. A shift in production may increase demand for irrigation water, roads, electricity, warehousing, processing facilities, and agricultural services. Therefore, planning must consider not only where crops can grow but also whether the surrounding agricultural system can support production at the required scale.

Researchers used a metric called the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). A ratio above 1 means that the anticipated benefits exceed the costs. For example, a ratio of 1.50 means that for every rand invested, approximately 1.50 is expected in broader economic and social benefits. The study considered not only farmer income but also broader advantages such as food security, employment, and export earnings. According to the study's central estimates, maize and citrus showed some of the strongest return indicators, with a benefit-cost ratio of around 1.50. Sorghum also showed good results, with a ratio of approximately 1.41.

These findings are important because crops play very different roles in the economy. Maize is central to South Africa's food security, livestock feed, and agricultural processing. Citrus is a major source of export revenue and supports numerous jobs in rural communities. Thus, protecting these sectors from future climate risks will benefit far beyond the farm.

However, high-value crops are not automatically the safest investments for adaptation. Avocado and macadamia orchards require significant initial establishment costs and take several years to reach full productivity. This creates a long period between initial investment and expected return. Furthermore, it exposes producers to risks from future changes in water availability, temperatures, resource costs, export prices, and market access. The conclusion is clear: a crop may have high market value but carry significant long-term adaptation risk.

Sorghum represents a much smaller industry than maize or wheat, but its ability to tolerate heat, drought, and unreliable rainfall gives it strategic value in a changing climate. In the study, sorghum remained relatively resilient under harsh climatic conditions, even when prospects for several other crops worsened. However, this does not mean farmers can plant sorghum anywhere and expect easy profits. This crop still faces challenges, including limited markets, low consumer demand, and pressure on farm-level profitability. Climate resilience alone will not create a successful industry. Sorghum requires functioning value chains, meaning investment in seed systems, processing, product development, procurement capabilities, and consumer awareness. Higher demand for sorghum-based foods, beverages, and feed could help translate its climate advantages into real income for farmers. This may be particularly important for small and emerging farmers in water-scarce areas. A more diversified cropping system can reduce dependence on a small number of climate-sensitive commodities.

Modeling shows that economic prospects generally become more complex as climate change intensifies toward the middle and end of the century. Under a high-emission scenario, projected yields drop sharply for several crops. Maize, citrus, avocado, and macadamia are particularly sensitive to the combination of heat and water stress, while perennial orchards face the added risk that conditions may change significantly during the trees' productive lifespan. This is why adaptation decisions cannot be based solely on current growing conditions. An orchard planted today may continue to yield harvests decades later. Infrastructure, such as irrigation systems, packing sheds, roads, and warehouses, also represents a long-term commitment. If these investments are made without considering future climate suitability, producers and governments could push themselves into increasingly risky situations. Conversely, shifting production requires roads, irrigation, electricity, warehousing, processing capacity, expanded services, and market linkages in new areas. Farmers may also require financing during the establishment years when costs are high and income is limited. Therefore, adaptation requires coordinated planning. Individual farmers cannot bear the burden of a national transition.

South Africa needs a practical, regularly updated crop suitability monitoring system that incorporates new information on climate, soil, water, and production. Such a system could help farmers, financiers, and government determine where risks are increasing and where new opportunities may arise. It could also guide land-use planning, infrastructure investment, agricultural financing, insurance, and extension support. The information must be detailed enough to support local decisions yet accessible enough to be useful outside research institutions. For farmers, the question is not just whether the climate is changing; it is how quickly local conditions are changing, what this means for a specific crop, and which adaptation options are financially realistic. For policymakers, the task is to avoid one-size-fits-all solutions. Maize, sorghum, and macadamia have different production cycles, water needs, markets, or investment risks. Support measures must reflect these differences.

South African agriculture has historically adapted to challenging conditions. Farmers have changed varieties, planting times, irrigation methods, production systems, and markets in response to drought, prices, and new technologies. Climate change adds another layer of pressure, but it also strengthens the argument for better information and earlier planning. The study shows that shifting some production to more suitable areas can bring significant economic and social benefits. This can safeguard food supplies, support rural jobs, and help vital export industries remain competitive. However, successful adaptation will depend on choosing the right crop, in the right place, at the right time, and understanding the full cost before planting the first seed or tree. South Africa does not need to move its agricultural sector overnight. It needs to begin preparing for a crop map that may look very different by the middle of this century. The future of South African agriculture will depend not only on how farmers produce, but increasingly on where they produce, and whether those locations remain economically, ecologically, and socially viable as the climate changes.

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cgtn.comOctober 28, 23:45

Climate shocks increase health risks for Africa's most vulnerable populations

Climate change is transforming the healthcare system in Africa: rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and floods are worsening food insecurity, increasing the threat of infectious diseases, and placing additional strain on already fragile healthcare systems.

These negative consequences are felt most acutely by vulnerable communities, highlighting the critical importance of taking action to combat climate change and build resilient healthcare systems to secure the continent's future.

John Wafuula, a humanitarian specialist at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Kenya, notes that the impact of climate change goes beyond mere environmental damage, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups and limiting their access to essential medical care and support.

In many African countries, households depend on rain-fed agriculture for sustenance and income. When climate shocks lead to crop failure, livestock loss, and other productive asset destruction, families can lose years of hard labor, deepening poverty and leaving them uncertain about their future.

Climate variability also exacerbates existing public health challenges. Floods can contaminate water sources and raise the risk of waterborne diseases, while drought reduces access to safe water and jeopardizes sanitation and hygiene. Furthermore, changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the spread of disease burdens across the continent.

The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that by 2030–2050, climate change could cause an additional 250,000 deaths annually due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrheal diseases, and heat stress.

Women and vulnerable groups face growing risks

However, the impact of climate change is not distributed evenly. Women and girls, the elderly, people with disabilities, refugees, and other displaced groups may face additional barriers to accessing basic services and support.

Wafuula points out that livelihood destruction can force some women into dangerous survival methods, including sex work, which increases their vulnerability to exploitation, violence, and health risks. He adds: 'Such circumstances can exacerbate psychological distress, especially when protection and health services are unavailable.'

Across Africa, prolonged droughts compel women and girls to travel long distances in search of water, increasing their vulnerability to security threats and potential violence. According to a 2025 World Bank report on women and climate adaptation, women face several barriers to adopting climate-resilient agriculture, including unstable land rights, limited access to climate information, and increased risk aversion due to economic vulnerability.

Limited access to information also contributes to low uptake of weather insurance, while their susceptibility to risks, including fertility and childcare-related health issues, further complicates this situation. Domestic responsibilities also restrict their participation in non-farm activities, narrowing opportunities for income diversification and migration in response to climate shocks.

Climate change is intensifying displacement

Moreover, environmental pressures often intersect with conflict, instability, and poverty, forcing families across Africa to leave their homes in search of safety and livelihoods. This creates another vulnerable group—people displaced by climate shocks and their cumulative effects.

Wafuula asserts that climate change has contributed to the movement of people seeking refuge in Kenya, particularly in the Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in northern Kenya. He explains: 'Most of the population arriving in the Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps over the past five years is a result of climate change in their respective countries. Food insecurity, limited access to healthcare, and heightened protection risks force many to leave their homelands and move to Kenya as climate refugees.'

Wafuula adds that between 2021 and 2025, the number of refugees in the Dadaab and Kakuma camps in northern Kenya significantly increased. According to UNHCR Portal data, there were 879,452 refugees and asylum seekers in Kenya as of September 30, 2026.

These displacement trends reflect broader climate challenges in the region. Climate change has long been viewed primarily as an environmental issue, but its consequences extend to the social, psychological, and economic aspects of people's lives, undermining their sense of security, dignity, and control over their own lives.

Considering climate change solely as an environmental problem risks ignoring its far-reaching consequences for health, protection, and access to basic services across the region. Wafuula insists on a paradigm shift, recognizing climate change as a human rights issue and placing health at the center of climate adaptation planning.

Strengthening health systems through data and climate finance

Effective climate preparedness depends on reliable data to identify vulnerable groups, map health infrastructure, and forecast emerging risks. In the region, governments collaborate with international partners under climate data initiatives.

Nevertheless, insufficient investment in collecting and coordinating domestic data threatens to weaken early warning systems and delay emergency responses. Wafuula emphasizes the importance of data-driven preparedness to strengthen climate risk response. He stated: 'Governments need interoperable information systems that integrate demographic, health, environmental, and population displacement data. Predictive analytics can help authorities identify high-risk groups, pre-position medicines, and allocate resources before climate hazards escalate into disasters.'

In 2023, Kenya hosted the Africa Climate Summit and Africa Climate Week, creating opportunities to advance continental climate action. The Nairobi Declaration called for increased international support and climate finance to address Africa's challenges. While international climate finance, including support through the Green Climate Fund, offers opportunities to strengthen adaptation, Africa has yet to fully translate these commitments into practical health protection measures.

The WHO warns that areas with weak health infrastructure, especially in developing countries, will be least prepared to cope with climate health risks without support for preparing for and responding to these challenges.

foodformzansi.co.zaOctober 19, 10:00

Intern Experience in South African Agriculture: Balancing Theory and Farm Reality

Despite continuous efforts by the agricultural sector to provide students with practical opportunities and promote Work Integrated Learning (WIL) as a vital step for young entrepreneurs in the agro-sector, a detailed analysis of the actual farm experience reveals a complex picture.

For many students in agricultural fields, the transition from classrooms to real agricultural operations involves practical growth, mental strain, a steep learning curve, and the necessity of adapting to a new lifestyle.

This dual reality was documented in a 2025 study published in the South African Journal of Agricultural Extension, authored by Reward Mathebula, Elliot M. Zwane, and Ernest M. Letsoalo.

The study, conducted among 73 government interns after graduating in the Mpumalanga province, showed mixed results. Out of 35 evaluation statements, 19 received negative feedback concerning structural deficiencies such as low wages and employment delays, while 16 reviews were positive, indicating skill acquisition and practical experience gained.

Sinetemba Gebashe, the host at Ithuba Lamahlavula Farming, describes the placement of interns, including students sent by the Department of Agriculture, as an extremely beneficial experience that strengthens youth confidence. He notes that some students possess strong theoretical knowledge but are not yet confident in executing practical tasks. Gebashe manages this by working closely with them, demonstrating methods, and assigning tasks that allow them to learn through doing.

At Gebashe's farm, interns assist in all core processes, including egg production, poultry management, record-keeping, harvesting, and general farming duties. Knowledge exchange occurs in both directions. He emphasizes that students bring new ideas and knowledge from their curricula, so not only the students but also he himself learns. His goal is to share acquired knowledge, provide youth with an opportunity, and perhaps help some see agriculture as a career and business they can build themselves.

Mabonngi Ndabandaba, a third-year student at Sol Plaatje University pursuing a degree in agricultural sciences under a mandatory WIL module, described her experience as 'bittersweet'. Without prior farm experience, her first hurdle was the placement process itself, as requirements vary across farms, and some do not offer WIL at all.

Moving far from home and adapting to farm life proved challenging, especially in the work environment interaction. Ndabandaba noted that the biggest challenge was establishing interpersonal relationships with people from different social strata and with varying ambitions. She highlighted the sharp contrast between university life and intensive farm operations, noting the difference in physical and mental demands compared to academic routines.

She explained that farm life differs greatly from university life: there are no lecturers, and you are expected to deliver the best results even under high production pressure. For instance, poultry farming requires productivity all day, starting with waking up at 6:00 AM to feed and ending with an evening check at 8:00 PM. Unlike university, where missing a lecture has no immediate consequences, farm work allows no room for idleness. She added that while students can skip classes in university without repercussions, farm work demands mental readiness for anything that might go wrong, such as livestock death. People may not realize that farm work requires adherence to strict schedules and complete dedication, which can be emotionally draining.

Looking back, she observed that full-time farm life limits personal freedom and requires giving up parts of one's lifestyle. She also insisted that academic theory must adapt to on-the-ground practical limitations. She stated: 'No matter how much you want to demonstrate what you read over two and a half years, you need to make room for farm reality. You can change things, but don't set overly high expectations given the farm's resources and capabilities.'

The gap between academic preparation and farm expectations sometimes leads to early departures. Ezile Mdliva, a former agricultural intern from Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) who completed his internship at a dairy farm in the Eastern Cape, eventually resigned after eleven months of his one-year internship. He noted: 'The problem is that some interns, when they come for an internship, do not consider themselves interns and do not think they should do the same work as regular employees, and they are shocked when they are given work.' He also pointed out that higher education institutions inadequately prepare students for the working world, leaving them unprepared, placing students on farms only in their final year after many years of purely theoretical study.