An economic analyst stated that the Iranian economy has the potential to overcome the pressure caused by the war, as well as to restore production and employment. He noted that bureaucratic delays and slow decision-making hindered the utilization of the country's economic potential.
The expert emphasized that the resilience of the economy during wartime depends not only on natural resources, production capacity, or trade links, but also on the quality of decisions made, the speed of executive body reactions, and the ability to turn potential into real results.
Despite external restrictions and war damage, the Iranian economy possesses significant industrial, agricultural, manufacturing, and geographical capabilities. However, realizing these requires coordination among responsible agencies, reduction of administrative barriers, and timely decision-making.
The main task is to use available resources to curb inflation, maintain production, restore damaged facilities, and strengthen employment, while preventing decision-making slowdowns that could intensify external pressure on the economy and public welfare.
Saeed Leilaaz, an economic analyst, believes in an interview with IRNA correspondent that the Iranian economy is capable not only of coping with current difficulties but also of implementing a series of reforms. He compared the situation to Russia's experience in the war in Ukraine, stating that applying Russian experience in Iran to combat inflation and maintain domestic production levels is feasible, and in some areas, Iran might even surpass Russia.
Leilaaz added that most problems facing the Iranian economy are not related to the war; they existed before it and are not limited to sanctions. Although the war and sanctions have exacerbated these issues, past experience has shown the country's ability to overcome them.
Acknowledging the current economic blockade as the greatest pressure in the history of the Iranian economy, the analyst noted that the country has about 35 other land borders with neighboring states, besides the southern water borders. He cited the opinion of the Iraqi Prime Minister that many of these countries depend on Iran for imports and exports.
Mentioning Turkey and Turkmenistan as neighbors, Leilaaz suggested that only the Republic of Azerbaijan, given the small size of its economy, could partially restrict Iran's imports and exports, and only in a scenario that has not yet occurred. He also highlighted the existence of an independent maritime border with Russia and stated that the Iranian economy is no weaker than the Russian one in terms of diversification, stability, or dependence on oil revenues.
Comparing the war in Ukraine to Iran's conditions, Leilaaz noted that the conflict Russia faces is a war of NATO and the Western bloc against this country. Similarly, the war he calls 'America's war against Iran,' in his opinion, has affected more than 70 countries worldwide.
The analyst recalled that in the first week of the war, he claimed that almost all of Europe supported America's war against Iran, and subsequently, this proved to be true. He concluded that while enduring the strongest pressure in Iran's history, it must be understood that this is not merely economic pressure, but a continuation of a repressive war.
He admitted that the country is not yet fully equipped to counter this situation and noted that under such pressure, all responsible bodies must act according to current conditions, but he sees no signs of such changes in the work of many administrative and executive sectors of the country.
In conclusion, the analyst reported that the pace of growth deceleration in the Iranian economy is slowing down, indicating a return to activity in the industrial and agricultural sectors. He also mentioned that agricultural sector growth reached about 6 percent over the three months ending in July, which is significant development after years of stagnation.
Regarding the Central Bank, Leilaaz noted that liquidity growth reached 0.3 percent in September and suggested that even a slight decrease in this indicator could be important for liquidity control, considering that around 2 percent would be an appropriate figure under normal conditions.
He called for serious and revolutionary actions to eliminate imbalances in the banking system. Furthermore, he proposed accelerating the recovery of state revenues and returning these funds to the population in the form of subsidies, which would help improve the economic situation and support the country's political and social stability.
The analyst also noted that, with the exception of the gas sector (which suffered from 100 to 130 million cubic meters of capacity loss) and parts of the steel and petrochemical industries, most physical damage has been restored.
