The issue of a sharp decline in atmospheric air quality has once again attracted public attention. Ecologists note that this problem affects not only the capital of Uzbekistan but also has a regional character. A detailed analysis of the causes was presented at the Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, based on data obtained from national and international observations.
According to monitoring data, on October 26, the Air Quality Index (AQI) exceeded the critical threshold of 100 units in six out of the eight largest cities in Central Asia. Specifically, in Bishkek, the indicator reached 160, placing the city fourth in the global anti-ranking for pollution. In Tashkent, the AQI was 157, and in Shymkent, it was 149, while in Dushanbe and Karaganda, it reached 134.
In neighboring Kazakhstan, the number of cities experiencing adverse meteorological conditions increased from four to ten in a short period. In Tashkent, the average daily index over a five-day period rose by 76%: from 93 points on October 21 to 164 points on October 26. The peak pollution was observed at night: over the last month, the average reading at 23:00 was 119, whereas during the day at 17:00, it remained at 82. The synchronous atmospheric haze in remote cities indicates that the main cause lies in the scale of regional atmospheric processes.
Causes: Anticyclone and Temperature Inversion
During the third decade of October, a sluggish anticyclone formed over Central Asia. The combination of calm winds, lack of precipitation, and strong temperature inversion prevented natural air movement. Physically, this manifests as warm air covering cooled ground, acting like an airtight lid, which stops vertical mixing of the atmosphere.
Under such conditions, the concentration of PM2.5 microparticles rapidly increases even with unchanged emission volumes, as exhaust fumes, heating smoke, industrial emissions, and lifted dust remain trapped in the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Natural Dust vs. Anthropogenic Factor
Central Asia is located within a vast arid zone that includes territories such as the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts and the dried bed of the Aral Sea (Aralkum). Dusty plumes easily cross national borders, making it impossible to solve the problem of transboundary dust transport within a single city. Laboratory analysis of air samples taken in the Almazarsky, Yunusabadsky, and Mirzo-Ulubeksky districts of Tashkent revealed the composition of PM2.5 pollution particles:
39.7% was attributed to natural mineral dust from the deserts, and 42.6% to combustion processes related to transport, industry, and the energy system. During periods of intense dust storms, the share of the natural factor in the capital's air could reach 64%, and in some samples, 78%.
Annual Trend and Monitoring Network
The Ecology Committee emphasizes the need to separate short-term pollution spikes from the overall annual trend. For the period from January to October 19, 2026, the content of PM2.5 particles in Tashkent decreased by 28%, and PM10 by 32% compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, the average air quality index for October improved from 124 to 104.
To ensure timely control, the monitoring system in Uzbekistan has been expanded: 28 automatic monitoring stations have been connected to the national platform, whose data is available to scientists and the public in real time.
What needs to be done?
Specialists point out that climate change, drought, and reduced soil moisture contribute to an increase in the frequency of dust storms and atmospheric stagnation. In this regard, key measures have been identified: strengthening regional cooperation and prompt data exchange between the hydrometeorological services of Central Asian countries for joint dust transport forecasting; advance prediction of inversion phenomena and timely public notification; systematic reduction of emissions from factories, boilers, and transport, as well as increasing energy efficiency.
Strict control over dust suppression at construction sites and large-scale greening of uncultivated land, as well as competent urban planning that preserves air corridors, are also necessary. The main conclusion of the scientists is that weather conditions can significantly worsen the ecological situation, but protecting public health depends on reducing anthropogenic load and interregional coordination.
