Despite expectations that flying cars will appear by 2026, the most advanced projects are currently only prototypes undergoing testing. However, the fact that eVTOL (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing — electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle) is moving out of the concept stage is not in doubt.
Fernando Martini Catalano, Professor at the Department of Aerospace Engineering and Director of the School of Engineering San Carlos (EESC-USP), confirmed that this will happen. He explained how these aircraft work and what barriers prevent them from beginning full operation.
Fernando Castro Pinto, a lecturer at the Department of Mechanical Engineering of the Polytechnic School UFRJ, also participated in the discussion. Two companies dominate the sector: Joby Aviation from the USA and Eve Air Mobility, a division of the Brazilian company Embraer.
Currently, there is a race between companies to meet the requirements of aviation authorities such as Anac (National Civil Aviation Authority) and the FAA (the equivalent of Anac in the USA). Joby is focusing on conquering the American and Middle Eastern markets using the Joby S4 model, capable of carrying one pilot and four passengers with a tilt-rotor propulsion system. Eve, meanwhile, is betting on the simplicity of its mechanical design and the experience of global certification gained from Embraer.
Joby has partnered with Toyota to ensure large-scale automotive production. Demonstrative and experimental flights of the Joby S4 with passengers are expected to begin in the USA in late 2026 – early 2027. Simultaneously, commercial transport by this American company is expected to start in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Eve's eVTOL, codenamed Eve 100, is also designed for one pilot and four passengers. Its technical advantage lies in the 'lift + cruise' design, which uses separate rotors for vertical takeoff and a rear propeller for horizontal flight, providing simpler mechanics and lower maintenance costs compared to the Joby project.
Like Joby, the Eve project is in the testing and certification phase. Although mass production has not yet begun, the factory in Taubaté (São Paulo state), designed by Embraer, is capable of assembling up to 480 aircraft annually. Embraer and Eve management predicts final certification and the start of commercial operation by the end of 2027 or during 2028.
Morgan Stanley estimates the global eVTOL and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market at $1 trillion (5 trillion Brazilian reais) by 2040, including passenger transport, cargo delivery, and necessary digital and physical infrastructure (vertiports). However, the bank recently lowered its 2030 forecasts by 75%, bringing them down to $12 billion (60 billion reais), because regulatory barriers proved higher than anticipated.
Technical and safety issues are the main obstacle. Fernando Castro Pinto notes that the main technological challenge is similar to the battery problem in electric vehicles: the more energy required, the larger the battery, the heavier the aircraft, and the more energy is needed. Fernando Martini Catalano adds that the weight of batteries remains too high relative to the energy they provide.
Furthermore, Fernando Pinto pointed out other obstacles to implementation in Brazil: the need to obtain a driver's license and comply with traffic rules. He emphasized that an accident at 30 meters altitude would have much more serious consequences than on the ground.
Consolidating eVTOL fleets will require not only a high level of qualification exceeding standard driving licenses but also harmonious coexistence with civil aviation and helicopters, adhering to routes and airport restrictions. The pilot must possess commercial class pilot skills, understanding all limitations related to routes, radio communication, and attentiveness.
When will flying cars become a reality? Catalano believes it will take seven to ten years, noting that the aircraft itself is only part of the problem; the entire ecosystem, including vertiports, charging logistics, noise reduction, and urban legislation, is necessary. Fernando Pinto, on the other hand, predicts decades for mass transport, as infrastructural bottlenecks such as the capacity of the urban power grid, as well as the evolution of battery technologies and the creation of a legal framework, must be resolved.
Catalano suggests considering medical emergency transport, organ transport, and cargo transport as the initial entry of eVTOL into cities, as these can become faster and more accessible solutions compared to helicopters, especially since not all hospitals are equipped with helipads, and a vertiport can be a cheaper and more urgent alternative.
The main challenge, according to experts, is to make the use of flying cars relatively inexpensive so that they do not remain a luxury item but serve a real benefit to the population.
