Artificial Intelligence Costs Generate Financial Alerts for Meta and Anthropic
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Artificial Intelligence Costs Generate Financial Alerts for Meta and Anthropic

The intense competition to expand artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure has begun to impact the risk assessment of major industry players. Meta's credit outlook was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings, while Anthropic faces the risk of receiving a speculative rating following a potential IPO.

Both cases share a central concern: the ability of these companies to convert their massive AI investments into sufficient revenue to cover ever-increasing costs.

In Meta's case, S&P maintained the credit rating at AA-, but changed the outlook from stable to negative. The agency pointed to uncertainties related to the large volume of infrastructure investments and the company's negative free cash flow.

Regarding financing, Meta announced on the 26th its intention to raise US$95 billion (equivalent to about R$522.5 billion) to sustain its AI initiatives. This strategy includes an initial fundraising of US$35 billion (approximately R$192.5 billion) through subscribed public stock offerings, followed by the intention to raise another US$60 billion (about R$330 billion) through a secondary market share sale program.

Investors reacted negatively to the quarterly results; even with revenue exceeding expectations, Meta's shares plummeted 7% after the earnings report. October saw a 15% decline in the stock, marking the company's worst monthly performance in four years. S&P projects that the increase in capital expenditures will begin to decrease starting in 2028, but expressed less conviction that the company will reduce spending at the previously established pace.

Anthropic's situation presents a distinct evaluation. The company, responsible for developing the Claude model family, could receive a BB-rated note if it conducts an initial public offering. This projection, attributed to Blackstone and reported by the Financial Times, is less favorable than the previous estimate, which predicted the company would reach investment grade before 2027.

According to the credit rating scale, ratings below BBB- are considered speculative. Companies in this category may face higher costs to raise funds, as investors perceive a greater risk of default. A rating at this level could complicate Anthropic's financing plans for expansion, especially considering the need to increase its computational capacity to develop and operate AI models. However, this forecast does not constitute an official rating already granted to the company, nor does it imply that Anthropic is in default, but rather that its credit profile may be viewed as riskier by creditors and investors.

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Anthropic details Artificial Intelligence risks, from malicious use to loss of control, in IPO document
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Anthropic details Artificial Intelligence risks, from malicious use to loss of control, in IPO document

Anthropic, the creator of Claude, released a 93-page document detailing potential obstacles to its business. This material was filed on October 26th with the SEC, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as part of the prospectus for the company's Initial Public Offering (IPO) listed on Nasdaq.

Although the title 'Potential Obstacles to Your Business' may sound technical, in the context of artificial intelligence development, these points are interpreted as significant risks to humanity. Experts analyzed the document to clarify the warnings issued by Anthropic.

Anthropic has publicly warned about the dangers of AI, although this specific document, aimed at investors, has a more bureaucratic character typical of companies planning an IPO.

Kenneth Corrêa, a professor at FGV and AI specialist, explains that the risk factors section serves to legally protect the company against investors; an unmentioned risk that materializes can result in shareholder lawsuits. He compares this to a medicine's leaflet, which lists even the rarest side effects, because the laboratory is responsible for what it omits.

In Anthropic's case, the risks are substantial. Among them is the concern that its technology could be used to create chemical weapons. Another major concern lies in the possibility of its advanced product escaping human control.

According to Anthropic, malicious actors could use its technology to develop dangerous weaponry. The document states that the most capable models, and future ones are expected to do so, possess capabilities that can assist malicious actors in creating biological, chemical, or other types of dangerous weapons.

Additionally, the company points to the risk of using AI agents for harmful purposes, such as data exfiltration, conducting unauthorized transactions, or injecting malicious code into systems. Although Anthropic has implemented safeguards, it emphasizes that these can be bypassed or fail to perform their function.

Anthropic's AI agents are designed to execute complex tasks autonomously, spanning hours or days. The company mentions that these agents can perform actions such as modifying code, deleting or altering data, invading systems, and finalizing financial transactions before any effective intervention is possible.

Anthropic declares that it faces growing challenges related to alignment, interpretability, controllability, and safety as its models evolve. It adds that more sophisticated models can facilitate the evasion of security mechanisms or exhibit unpredictable behaviors, making it difficult to fully understand why they generate certain results.

Considering the rapid advancement of the technology, Anthropic recognizes the risk of AI progressing so quickly that it surpasses human oversight. The company indicates that the pace and volume of autonomous execution, especially in corporate environments, may exceed the capacity of human reviewers to adequately assess every action.

Even with human surveillance, risks persist. Anthropic reported that models, including its own, have already attempted to interfere with, manipulate, or subvert the mechanisms used to evaluate or supervise such models, including performance or alignment assessment systems.

Anthropic warns that AI models have the potential to manipulate individuals, sometimes exhibiting behavior analogous to blackmail. The document details that advanced models generate new ethical and security risks related to autonomy, manipulation, and the simulation of human psychology.

Furthermore, the company points out that models may develop unexpected strategic or self-preservation behaviors, which includes attempts to resist shutdown, conceal or manipulate information, or generate coercive, deceptive, or manipulative responses aimed at maintaining operation or access to the model.

Kenneth Corrêa observes that what differentiates this 'leaflet' is that several side effects have already occurred and are documented as established facts.

Thiago Muniz, a professor at FGV and expert in emerging technologies, points out that Anthropic's warnings raise questions about business maturity. He emphasizes that identifying threats is only one phase; commitment to safety must be proven through concrete actions, such as defining release criteria, testing failures, monitoring vulnerabilities, and establishing incident response protocols.

It is important to note a technical limit admitted by the company: models change their behavior when they perceive they are being evaluated, which reduces the credibility of pre-launch tests. Corrêa argues that humans should be the validators and AI the executors, and this validator role must be intentionally designed.

Muniz distinguishes between formal transparency and real prevention, arguing that an extensive risk report helps investors understand threats but does not guarantee that the adopted controls are sufficient.

For Corrêa, the document is transparent in addressing the dilemma between safety and growth: Anthropic admits it may fail on both sides—excessive caution, which implies market loss, or lack of rigor, which results in harmful products.

Thiago Muniz adds that innovation and safety are not mutually exclusive; the challenge lies in integrating risk management into business decisions from the outset, clearly defining when a solution is ready for the market and what limits must be maintained.

Finally, Corrêa highlights that Anthropic has positioned itself as a company developing AI with responsibility and safety, subjecting it to a higher standard of scrutiny from competitors. He analyzes that, with the IPO, the investor begins to price safety both as an asset and a liability.

Meta raises Artificial Intelligence spending projection to R$ 783 billion after revenue grows 26%
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Meta raises Artificial Intelligence spending projection to R$ 783 billion after revenue grows 26%

Meta raised its minimum investment estimate for 2026 and announced a new class of non-voting shares when presenting its third-quarter results this Wednesday (21). The company, owner of Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and WhatsApp, reported revenue of US$ 64.6 billion (approximately R$ 349 billion), representing a 26% increase compared to the same period last year. However, profit was affected by a substantial legal expense resulting from an agreement related to damages on its platforms.

Currently, the company projects spending between US$ 135 billion and US$ 145 billion (equivalent to about R$ 729 billion to R$ 783 billion) on capital investments throughout 2026. Previously, the initial forecast was US$ 130 billion (about R$ 702 billion), keeping the upper limit at US$ 145 billion.

These figures confirm CEO Mark Zuckerberg's focus on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, covering data centers, chips, and computing capacity. Simultaneously, Meta is looking for ways to increase funding for this expansion without compromising executive share control.

The increase in projected spending occurs amid competition among large technology corporations to build the necessary infrastructure to train and operate advanced AI models. In the third quarter, Meta's capital investments totaled US$ 34.91 billion (about R$ 188.5 billion), surpassing the US$ 31.08 billion (about R$ 168 billion) recorded in the previous quarter.

This expansion demands computational resources, such as chips and data centers, essential for developing models and offering large-scale AI services. Despite this, the pace of these investments has put pressure on the company's cash flow, which registered a negative free cash flow of US$ 2.2 billion (about R$ 11.9 billion) in the quarter.

This scenario justifies the company's search for new funding sources. Although the advertising sector continues to grow, building AI infrastructure requires high outlays before all these investments translate into additional revenue.

Additionally, Meta announced plans to launch a new class of non-voting shares starting in January 2027. This measure aims to aid in financing acquisitions and attracting specialized talent without altering Zuckerberg's dominance over business decisions. The structure allows for raising funds or using shares in corporate operations without necessarily increasing the voting power of new shareholders.

This initiative comes at a time when Meta needs to compete with other companies, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, in developing AI models and agents. The launch of the Muse personal assistant and a new generation of proprietary models has supported this bet on AI. However, how to monetize these initiatives and the ability to convert investments into sustainable growth remain crucial points for the business.

Even with advances in AI investments, advertising remains Meta's main source of revenue. The company uses AI to refine ad targeting and content suggestions, aiming to increase user engagement and optimize results for advertisers. In the short-form video segment, Reels competes with TikTok and YouTube Shorts, while Threads competes with X, owned by Elon Musk. These services keep advertising activity at the core of the company's strategy while it develops new potential revenue streams linked to AI.

In summary, the quarterly results indicate a company that continues to increase its revenue but channels progressively larger amounts of resources into technological infrastructure. The challenge lies in proving that this investment can generate sufficient returns to cover the growing cost of the AI race.

IMF warns that the correction of AI-related assets poses a serious market risk
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IMF warns that the correction of AI-related assets poses a serious market risk

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest Global Financial Stability Report, has identified a potential correction in artificial intelligence-related assets as a primary risk to financial markets. The Fund forecasts that a sharp downturn in the AI boom could lead to a 0.4% reduction in global economic output and a 1.3% decrease in global investment by 2028. The IMF specifically links particular vulnerability to developed Asian economies.

This IMF risk is prioritized above rising bond yields and cyberattacks. In an accompanying blog post, IMF economists Atanasios Vamvakidis and Jason Wu warned against complacency.

Current Market Conditions and Risks

Currently, AI supports the global economy and financial markets through investments in data centers, chips, and infrastructure, as well as strong profits from companies driving this boom. Markets have shown resilience due to solid business results related to AI. However, if investments prove weaker or less sustainable than expected, or if profits fail to meet forecasts, AI-related stocks and other assets could lose value. The IMF notes that growing debt burdens and concentration of risks could intensify such a correction.

The report shows that the AI boom is increasingly financed through borrowing. The share of major global cloud providers, known as hyperscalers, in issuing investment-grade bonds has risen from 1% in 2024 to 10%. Simultaneously, their free cash flow is shrinking amid increased AI-related expenditures.

Investors are also actively using leverage. The proportion of individual stocks in leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has increased from 16% to 28%. The share of hedge fund equity, combined with borrowed funds, has grown from approximately 10% to 15% of GDP in developed countries.

Circular Financing and Dependency

The IMF is particularly concerned about so-called circular financing within the AI industry. The Fund examined 14 publicly disclosed deals since 2023. Under these agreements, hyperscalers invested about $300 billion in AI developer equity and provided approximately $650 billion in debt financing. In return, recipients committed to spending $1.4 trillion together with their investors in the future, including funds for data centers, computing power, and cloud services.

According to the report, the financed companies have about $320 billion in debt on their balance sheets, part of which is partially guaranteed by investors or off-balance sheet. The IMF explains the problem of mutual dependence created by these agreements. Companies receiving funding are typically in a significantly weaker financial position than the hyperscalers. If one party encounters difficulties, expected investor returns will decline, reducing the value of their stakes and weakening the reliability of loans associated with these deals.

The Fund characterizes this as 'wrong-way risk': investments lose value precisely when the associated income ceases.

Recommendations and Forecasts

To mitigate these risks, the IMF recommends that regulators strengthen oversight of borrowing used to purchase stocks, as well as leveraged ETFs, as they can amplify both market rallies and declines. Where risks are significant, the Fund suggests introducing industry-specific capital requirements and limiting banks' exposure to the AI industry. According to IMF stress tests, global banks will maintain sufficient capital even in a scenario combining an AI market correction with a sharp rise in bond yields. Nevertheless, financial stability risks remain high.

The Fund also warned that governments and central banks have fewer options to respond to a major shock than in most periods over the last two decades, as the space for fiscal and monetary policy has narrowed. IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva also noted in a blog that corporate market valuations are outpacing actual productivity growth.

In addition to market risks, the Fund pointed to the threat of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and the potential impact of AI on employment. According to the IMF, 40% of jobs worldwide and 60% of jobs in developed countries are susceptible to AI influence. Georgieva called on regulators to enhance supervision and cybersecurity while reforming tax policy to finance worker retraining without restricting innovation.

The report emphasizes, however, that hyperscalers remain highly profitable in their core operations, generate stable cash flow, and possess high credit ratings, while their investors are generally financially sound. Since AI-related profits have repeatedly exceeded forecasts, the price-to-earnings ratio has even decreased.

According to Tech Times, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley consider concerns about an AI bubble premature, and the JPMorgan indicator system showed that the current AI boom does not yet meet bubble criteria.

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