Climate Crisis: A Serious Challenge for India's Economy, Agriculture, and Ecology
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Aaj Tak
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Climate Crisis: A Serious Challenge for India's Economy, Agriculture, and Ecology

The changing mood of the weather is no longer limited to normal seasonal changes; it has become a serious challenge for India's economy, agriculture, public health, and ecological balance. In some places, extreme heat is proving fatal, while in others, heavy rainfall in just a few hours causes waterlogging in cities. Droughts are turning fields barren, while floods destroy months of farmers' hard work. This raises the question: why is the weather, which has been the basis of Indian civilization and agricultural system for centuries, becoming so unpredictable?

India's traditional seasonal system had specific importance for summer, monsoon, autumn, winter, late winter, and spring. Farmers used to plan their farming based on weather signs, such as clouds, winds, and temperature. The flow of rivers, the greenery of forests, and the snow on the Himalayas were symbols of nature's harmony, but rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and the increasing threat of extreme weather events have cast serious doubt on this balance. Its effects are being seen from the Himalayas to the coastlines.

The severity of the climate crisis is also evident from recent meteorological data. According to the Climate India 2025 report by the Centre for Science and Environment and Down To Earth, an extreme weather event was recorded in 99 percent of India's days during the first nine months of 2025. During this period, reports of loss of life and crop damage due to these events were also received. To understand the true significance of this figure, it is necessary to analyze the definition of the events, the affected areas, and the losses incurred.

Climate change is increasing the risk of cyclones, excessive rainfall, and sea-level rise, which is having a particular impact on India's coastal communities. Indian agriculture is largely dependent on the monsoon. Delayed arrival of rain, prolonged drought, or excessive rainfall in a short period creates a major crisis for farmers. Rising heat can reduce the yield of crops like wheat, while unseasonal rains and hailstorms damage ready crops. The intensity of these impacts depends on the crop, region, soil, and irrigation availability.

Crop failure reduces farmers' income, making it difficult to repay loans and affecting the preparation for the next crop. Production decline can increase food prices, the burden of which falls most heavily on poor families. Thus, the climate crisis affects not only agriculture but also food security and the rural economy. To tackle this challenge, promoting climate-resilient agriculture is essential. This includes focusing on drought-resistant crops, seeds adapted to local conditions, micro-irrigation, crop diversification, and soil conservation. Farmers should be provided with timely local weather forecasts and agricultural advice. Additionally, ensuring effective crop insurance, transparent damage assessment, and prompt compensation to enable farmers to resume farming after natural disasters is crucial.

A major anomaly of the climate crisis is that while floods bring destruction, many areas struggle for drinking and irrigation water. River swelling in the plains of North India, excessive rainfall in the Northeast, and landslides in the Himalayan regions disrupt life. Conversely, falling groundwater levels in arid and semi-arid regions pose a threat to agricultural and domestic needs. However, it is not appropriate to attribute every flood or drought solely to climate change. Illegal encroachment on river floodplains, deforestation, unplanned construction, inadequate drainage, and excessive groundwater exploitation can turn natural risks into major disasters. Encroachment on ponds and lakes in cities and blockage of natural drainage paths can also cause severe waterlogging even with above-average rainfall.

Water management cannot be limited only to large dams and new projects. The restoration of ponds and lakes, rainwater harvesting, conservation of catchment areas, and protection of the natural flow of rivers are equally important. Controlling groundwater use according to local availability and promoting water reuse are also necessary. Water should be managed wisely as a shared natural resource rather than merely a commodity for consumption. The impact of climate change is not limited to humans and agriculture; changing patterns of temperature and rainfall can affect the life cycles of plants, birds, insects, and wildlife. Changes in flowering times of plants, alterations in bird migration patterns, and shrinking of natural habitats are serious indicators for ecological balance. Neelakurinji found in the Western Ghats is a prime example of this. Some main species of this plant are known to bloom collectively at intervals of about 12 years. After the major blooming in 2018, the next major blooming period is estimated to be around 2030. However, long-term scientific evidence is required to consider a change in a specific blooming cycle as a definite result of climate change.

Nevertheless, monitoring such natural cycles is extremely important. Plant life cy

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Cyclone in Bay of Bengal: Red Alert in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, Weather Change in Delhi and UP
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Cyclone in Bay of Bengal: Red Alert in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, Weather Change in Delhi and UP

Weather across many states in the country is preparing for changes. The Meteorological Department has issued a warning of heavy rainfall in several regions of South, Central, and East India, caused by the cyclonic storm 'Ornab' that formed in the Bay of Bengal. The word 'Ornab' in Bengali means 'sea', and this storm was named by Bangladesh.

Very heavy rain is expected in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and warnings for strong winds and thunderstorms have been issued. In Delhi and surrounding areas, heavy rain is not forecast for Tuesday, but the weather may change as the week progresses. The Meteorological Department predicted the possibility of light to moderate rain in Delhi, Haryana, and Chandigarh between October 28 and 30. Strong gusts of wind at speeds of 30-40 kilometers per hour are expected on these days, with gusts potentially reaching 50 kilometers per hour. Rainfall is also possible in Punjab between October 28 and 30, and rainfall activity may increase in Uttar Pradesh, with very heavy rain forecasted for Eastern UP on October 29 and 30.

Due to the intensification of the meteorological system in the Bay of Bengal, there is a risk of worsening maritime conditions. According to the Meteorological Department, the sea situation in the west-central part of the Bay of Bengal may be extremely rough on October 27. Extremely dangerous sea conditions are expected to form by the morning of October 28. Strong winds are expected near the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Janam starting from October 27. By the morning of October 28, wind speeds in the west-central part of the Bay of Bengal could reach 115-125 kilometers per hour, with gusts potentially reaching 140 kilometers per hour. Squall-like weather may also be observed in the coastal areas of South Odisha and North Tamil Nadu on October 27 and 28. Fishermen were advised not to venture into the sea until October 28 in the west-central, northwest, and southwest parts of the Bay of Bengal. A warning was also issued against venturing into the sea near the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on October 27 and 28.

Over the next few days, an increase in rainfall activity is expected in Uttar Pradesh. Rain is possible in Eastern UP on October 28, followed by widespread precipitation in several areas on October 29 and 30. The Meteorological Department forecasts very heavy rain in some parts of Eastern UP on October 29 and 30. Heavy rains are also possible on October 31. During this period, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds of 40-50 kilometers per hour are expected, with gusts potentially reaching 60 kilometers per hour. Light to moderate rain is possible in Western UP from October 29 to 31. Rain is expected in Uttarakhand from October 29 to 31, with heavy rain possible in some places on October 30. Rains are forecasted in Eastern Rajasthan on October 29 and 30. Precipitation is also possible in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh towards the end of the week.

Increased rainfall is also expected in the states of Eastern India. In Jharkhand, rain is possible in many places from October 28 to 30, with forecasts of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds in some areas. In Bihar, increased rainfall is expected from October 29, with a probability of precipitation in several places from October 29 to 31. The Meteorological Department warns of the possibility of very heavy rains in some places on October 30 and 31. In West Bengal, Ganges plains, rain is possible in several places on October 28 and 29. Additionally, widespread rain is forecasted for Sub-Himalayan Bengal and Sikkim on October 29 and 30, with the possibility of heavy rainfall in some areas.

Rainfall is expected to begin in Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha on Tuesday. Heavy rains are possible in Chhattisgarh, and then the intensity of precipitation will increase on October 28 and 29. Extremely heavy rains are possible in South Chhattisgarh on October 28 and in North Chhattisgarh on October 29. During this period, thunderstorms and strong winds of 50-60 kilometers per hour are expected, with gusts potentially reaching 70 kilometers per hour. Heavy rains are possible in Vidarbha from October 28 to 30. Rain is expected in Eastern Madhya Pradesh in many places from October 28 to 30, with very heavy rain possible in some places on October 29. Sporadic rain is also expected in Western Madhya Pradesh from October 28 to 31. In Maharashtra, in the Marathwada region, rain is possible from October 27 to 30. Rain is forecasted in Central Maharashtra on October 28, 29, and 31. Light to moderate rain is possible in Konkan and Goa from October 28 to 31.

According to the Meteorological Department (IMD), extremely heavy rainfall is possible in the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Janam (Puducherry) on October 27 and 28.

El Niño's Impact: Winter Temperature Rise Forecasted in India, Threatening Wheat Harvest
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El Niño's Impact: Winter Temperature Rise Forecasted in India, Threatening Wheat Harvest

Amid global climate changes, concern is growing over the El Niño phenomenon. The coming months may be critical for India. Following the monsoon season, which saw a 13% decrease in precipitation compared to normal, the question arises whether El Niño could raise winter temperatures and put pressure on agriculture.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a possible strengthening of El Niño until the end of 2026 and its influence persisting until 2027. El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This natural climate system affects winds, atmospheric activity, and precipitation distribution worldwide.

In India, particular attention is paid to El Niño because during this event, the risk of reduced rainfall in the southwest monsoon increases. Changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures disrupt the balance of winds and atmospheric conditions, weakening the monsoon and increasing the likelihood of prolonged drought in some regions. However, this does not mean that every part of India will experience a precipitation deficit every time; the impact depends on other seasonal factors and regional characteristics.

During the past monsoon season, uneven rainfall was observed in different parts of the country. In Central India, precipitation was almost normal, whereas Eastern and Northeastern India recorded a 26% drop below average, classified as an extreme drought situation. Southern Indian states experienced a 24% decrease in precipitation below the average. If El Niño intensifies, temperatures in some areas of India may exceed normal levels in the coming months, leading to increased strain on water reserves in reservoirs, irrigation, and agriculture.

Referring to forecasts from the South Asian Climate Forum, the WMO noted that from October to December 2026, maximum and minimum temperatures across much of South Asia may remain at or above normal levels. For India, the wheat harvest is also a serious concern. A rapid rise in temperature late in winter can negatively affect wheat yield, especially during grain formation. Excessive heat at this time threatens to impact grain development and overall yield. The weather forecast for January and February 2027 will depend not only on El Niño but also on factors such as Western Disturbances.

The impact of El Niño is not limited to India; it causes changes in temperature, precipitation, and storm activity in many parts of the world. Indonesia is experiencing its worst period of forest fires since 2015. In Southeast Asia, the risk of wildfires and drought is increasing due to hot and dry conditions. Some parts of East Africa are expected to see heavy rains and flooding, while other regions face a risk of drought. Thus, the impact of El Niño is heterogeneous for each region.

The impact is also noticeable on storm activity. Storm activity has increased in the eastern Pacific, while strong high-altitude winds over the Atlantic Ocean weaken the process of storm development. Weather conditions in South America can also vary: some areas of the Amazon face the threat of drought and dryness, while southern areas are expected to have heavier rains and floods.

According to the WMO warning, El Niño may strengthen until the end of 2026 and maintain its influence until 2027. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor changes in India regarding temperature, precipitation, and agriculture. After a period of low rainfall, key issues will be the availability of water resources, irrigation of winter crops, and the wheat harvest. India's challenge is not only the intensification of El Niño but also how its consequences will manifest after the monsoon season with insufficient rainfall. The actual weather trajectory in the coming months will determine the extent of the impact on winter temperature, precipitation, and the agricultural sector.

Climate could become the next major economic problem for South Africa
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Climate could become the next major economic problem for South Africa

Weather may become the next significant economic challenge for South Africa. The intensification of El Niño is raising concerns about rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and the consequences for the country's agriculture, food prices, and economic growth.

Aroni Chaudhuri, an economist at Coface, warned that climate risks are turning into one of Africa's largest economic problems, as extreme weather conditions threaten agricultural production, food security, and overall economic stability.

Climate risks threaten food prices and growth

He noted that while favorable rainfall contributed to increased agricultural output and reduced pressure on food prices in 2025, a strong El Niño is capable of reversing these gains. This will lead to negative consequences for inflation, consumer spending, and economic growth in both South Africa and the wider region.

Chaudhuri emphasized that the region's food system heavily relies on stable maize production in countries such as South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Any significant drop in yields could accelerate food inflation across the region, putting additional pressure on households already facing tight budgets.

He added that this is particularly important because the impact of food inflation is felt much more strongly in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) compared to developed economies.

This warning came as South Africa prepares for its summer planting season, and climate forecasts indicate an intensification of El Niño, which could affect rainfall and temperature until early 2027. However, the extent of potential economic damage remains uncertain.

Investec reported last week that South Africa is likely to face less severe consequences than during the 2024 drought, when lack of rainfall damaged agriculture and slowed economic growth. The bank forecasts that El Niño will reduce economic growth in 2026 by between zero and 0.1 percentage points, and in 2027 by no more than 0.2 percentage points. It also revised its growth forecast for next year from 1.7% to 1.5%.

The bank stated: 'We still expect the negative impact of El Niño on GDP this year to be between 0% and -0.1% year-on-year, and next year no more than -0.2% year-on-year, with El Niño lasting until February 2027, after which a potential weak La Niña may follow according to current expectations.'

Investec cautioned that even if South Africa avoids a severe drought, abnormally high temperatures can still damage crops and livestock. Agriculture was a key driver of growth in 2025, contributing 1.1% to growth compared to 0.7% without this sector.

Extreme heat endangers workers and businesses

The impact can also be felt in workplaces, as extreme heat threatens worker health, productivity, and business operations. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) urged South African organizations to prepare for hotter conditions, warning that heat can affect workers both indoors and outdoors, disrupt supply chains, and strain energy and transport networks.

Dr. Chris van Straaten, a global health consultant for MSF on clinical management, stated that extreme heat should be viewed as both a workplace health issue and an operational risk. He warned that heat can cause dehydration and exhaustion, as well as affect concentration and reaction time.

Dr. van Straaten noted: 'Recent experience in Europe has shown how quickly extreme heat can overload healthcare systems, disrupt operations, and create serious risks for workers. Although South Africa's climate differs from Europe's, the lesson for employers is clear: extreme heat must be recognized as both a workplace health issue and an operational risk.'

MSF advised employers to assess their vulnerability to extreme heat before temperature increases, monitor weather forecasts, and develop worker protection plans. He added: 'Many organizations continue to link heat-related illnesses primarily to outdoor workers, such as construction workers and farmers.'

However, he said that indoor employees—those working in warehouses, factories, and poorly ventilated offices, including those required to wear heavy personal protective equipment (PPE)—are also vulnerable.

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