Gasoline and diesel prices in India may increase after the Diwali festival as rising global crude oil prices increase the burden on the government and state-owned oil refining companies. Energy expert Narendra Tanedge told Business Today TV that changes in domestic fuel prices could occur between Diwali and Christmas.
He warned that people cannot remain unaffected by growing global energy tensions. The rise in global prices will inevitably affect India, which could lead to an increase in the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel.
Tanedge added that a fuel price hike after Diwali and before Christmas is expected, noting that it will be extremely difficult for the government and oil companies to constantly cope with rising prices. Currently, Indian oil companies are under pressure due to high oil prices.
This pressure exceeds the headlines of crude oil prices. According to an Axis Bank Research report from October 23, the price of Brent Crude rose above $110 per barrel, and Dated Brent reached $140. Tanedge explained that the actual price paid by Indian refineries could be significantly higher than the stated market price due to increased costs for freight, marine insurance, and tanker crew wages.
He specified that when considering the landed price, it could be at least $20 higher than this base price, depending on the company and region. For India, additional costs could amount to about $25–$27 per barrel, depending on the source of raw materials and the refinery.
The average price of the Indian crude oil basket from October to October 26 rose by approximately 4% month-on-month, reaching $120.46 per barrel, the highest monthly average since March 2012. This increase occurred amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased geopolitical uncertainty, marine insurance premiums, and freight rates. By October 26, the price of the Indian crude oil basket reached $123.72 per barrel.
Meanwhile, in 2026, global crude oil prices have risen by almost 80%; on Tuesday evening, Brent traded at $114.6 per barrel, WTI at $100.9, and Murban at $117.7. Increased transportation costs, marine insurance premiums, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further increased the cost of crude oil imports.
The central government, state governments, state-owned oil refining companies, and the Reserve Bank of India are jointly bearing the brunt of the oil crisis. Axis Bank Research suggested in its October 23 report that this support would amount to 1.7% of GDP, based on an assumed average crude oil price of $100 per barrel; furthermore, every $10 increase in retail fuel prices increases the burden on GDP by 20 basis points. From April to September, India's crude oil imports grew by 46.3% year-on-year, reaching $90.6 billion.
Tanedge cautioned that the government and oil companies cannot indefinitely shield consumers from financial strain. He also emphasized the need to invest in foreign oil and gas assets to diversify crude oil supplies and ensure long-term supply for India.
Axis Bank Research forecasts that fiscal measures, such as increased duties and economic stabilization funds, could free up the equivalent of 0.6% of GDP, helping to limit the central government's financial decline by 20–30 basis points in the 2027 fiscal year. However, maintaining high crude oil prices in the long term may shift the majority of costs onto consumers.