Due to the threat of an intense El Niño event, which raises concerns about drought and the summer harvest, South African farmers are reducing maize cultivation and switching to growing sunflowers.
Pressure on producers is increasing due to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, falling maize prices, and unpredictable rainfall, which exacerbates difficulties this season.
According to the Crop Estimates Committee, farmers plan to plant 12.37% less maize this season, the lowest planned area in the last eight years. White maize plantings are projected to drop by more than 18%, while sunflower plantings, conversely, are expected to increase by almost 45%.
Sunflowers are considered an attractive alternative amid rainfall uncertainty because they mature faster than maize and are generally more drought-resistant. Some farmers in the western grain regions have already started planting earlier to utilize available soil moisture.
There is concern that hot and dry conditions may persist during the critical phase of the growing season. El Niño, a climate pattern associated with drought in parts of Southern Africa, is expected until early 2027.
Tobias Doer, CEO of Grain SA, told Daily Maverick that farmers are preparing for a potentially shorter growing season, which will be interrupted by droughts between rainy periods.
South Africa's significant maize reserves, including 4.3 million tons of white maize remaining from the previous harvest, provide some buffer against crop failure. However, a smaller yield could lead to tighter supplies and higher food prices next year.
White maize is a staple food for millions of South Africans, making the outcome of the season particularly important for households already facing cost-of-living challenges. Farmers are adapting as the season progresses; the first data from the Crop Estimates Committee on actual planted area is expected in January.
With unpredictable rainfall and rising production costs, the choice of crops has become a careful calculation. For many farmers, sunflowers may offer a better chance of surviving a season where every drop of rain matters.