The international rating agency Fitch Ratings assigned long-term issuer ratings for foreign and local currencies of BB- with a Stable Outlook to the Jizzakh region on October 16, 2026. Meanwhile, the region's short-term ratings were set at B.
These ratings reflect Fitch's assessment of the region's credit profile in its autonomous capacity at BB-. The agency expects the region's debt repayment ratio to remain below 9x until 2030. This assessment indicates a risk profile that Fitch considers weaker than average and a financial profile at the lower end of the aa category.
Fitch links the region's risk profile to income volatility amid Uzbekistan's tax and budget reforms. The central government determines the composition of taxes and the distribution of these funds across budget levels. In 2025, transfers accounted for 51% of the region's operating revenues, while taxes provided 44%.
From 2021 to 2025, the average share of transfers in operating revenue was 53%, while income from fees and duties, which the region can adjust, amounted to only 4%. Furthermore, the region has limited capacity to reduce expenditures.
In 2025, inflexible expenditures constituted 50% of total expenses, with salaries accounting for about 43% of operating costs. Capital expenditures made up 9% of total spending. The average inflation rate between 2021 and 2025 reached 10%.
According to Uzbek legislation, regional authorities do not have the right to attract loans on market terms. Although the region previously received intergovernmental loans, their volume was moderate. Liquidity is maintained through cash balances, which reached 41 billion soms at the end of 2025; most of these funds are earmarked for specific purposes.
The region can also receive short-term budget loans from the central government to cover temporary cash flow gaps. Fitch assesses the region's financial profile positively. According to the agency's scenario, the debt repayment ratio is expected to peak at 8.1x by 2030. The debt service coverage ratio is expected to average 2x during 2028–2030, and the budget debt burden is projected at around 20% in 2026–2030.
This scenario assumes an average annual growth rate of operating revenues at 8%. Operating expenses, conversely, are expected to grow faster—at 9.5% annually. The projected annual deficit in capital operations is 544 billion soms, and the average cost of debt is estimated at 14.7%.
Fitch identified the Fergana region and Tashkent as the closest analogs for the Jizzakh region. Both have a BB- rating with a Stable Outlook. Jizzakh's rating is higher than that of Balikyseir province in Turkey, which has a B+ rating, but lower than Aktovsk region in Kazakhstan, which has a BBB- rating.
According to Fitch, Jizzakh is one of Uzbekistan's rapidly developing regions, demonstrating economic growth exceeding the national average. The region accounts for 4% of Uzbekistan's population, and the gross regional product per capita is approximately 70% of the national average. Agriculture and industry contribute almost equal shares to the regional economy.
Fitch may downgrade the ratings if the debt repayment ratio exceeds 9x. A rating upgrade is possible if this ratio sustainably improves to around 7x.