According to the IPO prospectus draft, Anthropic's net loss for the first half of the year reached $80.7 billion, higher than the $13 billion recorded the previous year. However, most of this amount does not represent cash leaving the company; about $72 billion is an accounting expense resulting from the increased assumed value of convertible bonds that can be converted into Anthropic shares. In fact, this loss is a side effect of the sharp rise in the company's valuation.
A similar situation was observed last year: Anthropic's net loss in 2025 was approximately $42 billion, including a non-cash expense of $34 billion, with an operating loss of roughly $8.1 billion on revenue of $4.6 billion. It is the operating loss that should be tracked, as it is driven by computing power expenses.
Growth rarely achieved by other companies
Revenue growth has been exceptional: Anthropic reportedly generated $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, compared to $1.1 billion the previous year. Third-quarter revenue increased by 45%, reaching $16.8 billion, up from the second quarter's $11.6 billion, more than doubling the first quarter's figures.
However, this 45% growth is a cause for concern because the consistent increase is slowing down, which investors have noticed. On the investor floor, the company's valuation is being discussed near $1.5 trillion, which is below the expected level of $2 trillion projected in the summer. Nevertheless, compared to the private valuation of $965 billion in May, $1.5 trillion still represents significant growth, albeit less than the market anticipated.
Costs associated with compute shortages
Operating costs explain the caution. Anthropic has committed to spending no less than $518 billion on cloud services, computing power, and infrastructure over ten years. Approximately 80 percent of these commitments cannot be canceled. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, the prospectus draft indicates larger commitments exceeding $600 billion, with further negotiations ongoing. The difference between these two figures suggests that the total amount is still changing.
Computing and infrastructure costs in the first half of the year approached $9 billion, up from $2.3 billion the previous year. The prospectus also mentions Anthropic's relationships. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are increasingly viewing Anthropic as a competitor and are reluctant to provide all the necessary power, forcing Anthropic to turn to more expensive and disparate sources. The company integrates dependency on competitors into its cost structure.
What optimists are betting on
The optimistic scenario is based on changes in margins. Bankers and investors are applying revenue multiples to 2028 forecasts, betting that revenue will outpace the costs of supporting it. One prominent sponsor claims that as costs shift from model training to operation, profitability rises sharply, citing an announced inference gross margin of around 85%. If this holds, today's spending looks like an investment in a software-like economy.
Claude Code is acting as the driving force. This coding assistant provides Anthropic with a product that developers pay for regularly, making the company's revenue heavily focused on the corporate sector. Furthermore, Anthropic sells its products to businesses and developers, not end consumers, making it financially more attractive than the model led by OpenAI's ChatGPT.
Risks hidden in the footnotes
When the final prospectus is released, three points should be noted. First, concentration: about one-fifth of the revenue for the first half of the year came from two clients. Second, fragility: a temporary restriction by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Anthropic's top models contributed to a slowdown in revenue growth in June before the business recovered. Third, structure, as non-cancellable contracts mean that a halt in growth cannot be offset by cost reductions.
The accounting for convertible bonds also makes reported losses an unreliable indicator of the underlying condition. Until an audited version appears, revenue rates, reported revenue, and projected profit should not be considered verified results.
Why the entire sector is watching this
Anthropic's debut matters not only for the company itself. A weak reception could negatively impact the broader artificial intelligence market, especially considering that OpenAI is next to go public. OpenAI's CFO stated that the company will become public next year, and its own forecasts show about $278 billion in cash expenditures by 2030. Consultants warn that volatility in tech stocks and SpaceX's results after the IPO may reduce retail investor interest.