Central Asia is demonstrating rapid growth in the aviation market, and Uzbekistan is actively promoting ideas for creating an international hub, developing tourism, and modernizing regional airports. However, according to experts from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), simply increasing the number of flights is not enough to achieve this goal; coordinated work among airlines, airports, regulatory bodies, and the state is required.
In an interview with 'Gazeta', Suresh Subudi, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, Global Head of Travel, Cities, and Infrastructure, along with Vasily Triandafiliidis, BCG Director in Tashkent, discussed Uzbekistan's potential as an independent aviation market, the opportunities to transform airports into economic centers, issues related to aviation fuel, and barriers to developing domestic flights.
Suresh Subudi noted that while Central Asia positions itself as a new transport and tourism region, it still lags behind major global hubs such as Istanbul, Dubai, Doha, and Shanghai. Nevertheless, he believes that Uzbekistan can become a strong and independent aviation market, provided there is full alignment of actions by all stakeholders and a clear plan.
He emphasized that Uzbekistan's aviation market is growing at impressive rates: the number of flights to the country has increased more than fourfold, and the annual market growth is around 16%, which is almost two and a half times higher than GDP growth, creating favorable starting conditions.
Many countries aim to use airports as engines of economic growth by integrating cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, duty-free trade, as well as hotel, logistics, and urban infrastructure. Vasily Triandafiliidis explained that the full functioning of an airport requires the implementation of this entire complex of elements, demanding a strong strategy from both airlines and the airports themselves.
A key point is the development of a route network that considers arriving passengers and available destinations. Special attention should be paid to the MRO sector, as these are high value-added services that contribute to job creation. Furthermore, cargo transportation, conducted both in baggage holds and on separate flights, brings additional economic benefits. The example of Incheon in South Korea showed how duty-free can become an important part of the airport's appeal for passengers from China.
Suresh Subudi added that the national carrier's plans to increase its fleet make MRO a natural area for development. Creating a competitive MRO hub will allow servicing not only the national carrier but also other airlines. The growth of e-commerce, GDP per capita, and the passenger market will stimulate the development of cargo transportation.
Given that Uzbekistan receives about 11.1 million tourists annually, it is important to develop not only the hotel sector but also leisure and entertainment infrastructure related to aviation. All these areas must be based on a coordinated action plan.
When discussing high costs for aviation fuel and logistics, Suresh Subudi cites the example of Istanbul, which functions successfully as a hub despite lacking a significant price advantage in fuel. He notes that transit passengers account for 40–50% or more of the passenger flow. Thus, competitive advantages are not limited to low fuel costs; they can be formed through operational efficiency, high service quality, and speed of turnaround between flights.
It is important to define Uzbekistan's unique competitive advantage, which does not necessarily have to be linked to fuel prices, referencing successful models like Turkish Airlines and Cathay Pacific.
Vasily Triandafiliidis insists that regarding priorities—developing direct international flights, transit through Tashkent, or strengthening regional airports (Samarkand, Bukhara, Urgench, Fergana)—the correct answer is a comprehensive approach that includes railway connectivity.
Considering the country's vastness and the location of tourist sites such as Khiva, the strategy must be holistic. He gives the example of tourists arriving in Samarkand being unable to easily reach Bukhara. Therefore, the entire tourist route needs to be worked out: how to get from Tashkent to Samarkand (possibly by train), and then how to get to Khiva (for instance, via Urgench and ground transport).
Suresh Subudi agrees that the primary task is to understand actual tourist routes and how citizens travel across the country. Only after that can decisions be made regarding the development of air transport, investments in railways, the creation of hubs, or the opening of direct flights, which requires a critically important master plan for tourism connectivity.
Regarding granting 'fifth freedom of the air' rights to all airports for foreign companies to operate flights to third countries, Suresh Subudi believes the answer is complex and requires detailed analysis. Several factors must be considered: preserving room for growth for national carriers, defining the country's desired tourist routes, and providing investors with clear and predictable rules as infrastructure investments grow.
The decision to introduce such rights must be comprehensive, determining the timing, scale, and format of implementation—nationwide immediately, phased, or only in specific directions.
Concerning decisions similar to the reduction of flight frequency to Russia by Uzbekistan Airways due to fuel shortages and rising fuel prices, Vasily Triandafiliidis explains that such steps are usually caused by both factors: the fuel crisis and the reassessment of unprofitable routes. Fuel constitutes a significant portion of operating costs, and this impact is amplified when oil prices fluctuate.
When making a decision, the airline assesses the entire economics of the route, including load factor, passenger price sensitivity, and competition from low-cost carriers. A more reliable long-term solution is the development of domestic fuel production, which is possible for Uzbekistan by reorienting oil refineries, thereby reducing dependence on imports and supply risks.
According to Vasily Triandafiliidis, Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on imported aviation fuel, although the situation in this regard is gradually changing.