The El Niño phenomenon is causing global concern, and India may be among the countries facing a serious weather challenge. Following a monsoon season marked by a 13 percent rainfall deficit, attention is focused on whether this climatic event will lead to a warmer winter, disrupt precipitation patterns, and increase pressure on agriculture.
The consequences of El Niño are already manifesting across the globe, from raging forest fires in Indonesia to an unusually active hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean. Currently, the key question is what the strengthening of El Niño could mean for India in the coming months.
According to a BBC report, El Niño has been strengthening for several months and is affecting weather conditions worldwide. Specifically, Indonesia is experiencing its worst forest fire season since 2015, there is increased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, and there has been a decrease in monsoon rainfall in India.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that this phenomenon could intensify by the end of 2026 and persist through 2027, raising concerns about its potential impact on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events in various regions.
For India, the immediate concern is whether the intensifying El Niño will exacerbate the effects of the deficient monsoon and affect winter temperatures, rainfall, and agricultural conditions in the near future.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It represents a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that influences atmospheric circulation, wind systems, and precipitation distribution globally.
India is closely monitoring El Niño because this phenomenon is typically associated with an increased risk of reduced rainfall during the southwest monsoon. The warming of Pacific waters alters atmospheric circulation and can weaken the conditions supporting the Indian monsoon, thereby increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells and water shortages.
Although central India received nearly normal rainfall, eastern and northeastern India recorded a 26 percent deficit, classified as extreme drought, while southern states received 24 percent less rain on average, according to the BBC.
The strengthening of El Niño may contribute to warmer-than-usual conditions in some parts of India, potentially increasing the strain on water resources and agriculture.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), citing the South Asian Climate Forum, predicted normal or above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of South Asia from October to December 2026. Warmer late-winter temperatures could also threaten wheat yields if the heat coincides with the grain-filling stage, although this will depend on actual weather conditions. However, conditions in January and February will depend on developing climate patterns, including western disturbances.
Globally, El Niño is expected to raise temperatures in many parts of the world and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risks of drought, wildfires, and floods in different regions.
In Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, hotter and drier conditions increase the risks of drought and wildfires. Conversely, some areas of East Africa may experience heavier rainfall and flooding, while other areas remain concerned about drought.
El Niño also affects tropical storms. There is increased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, while stronger upper winds over the Atlantic suppress hurricane development.
Its effects vary in South America: some parts of the Amazon may experience drier conditions, while some southern regions may see increased rainfall and flooding.