Additional rain and foggy conditions expected in the UAE soon

According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the weather forecast for the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, October 14, is expected to range from good to partly cloudy. In the afternoon, there is a possibility of convective clouds forming and precipitation falling in some areas.

Clouds may appear over the eastern and western parts of the country, which could potentially lead to rain in certain locations. Residents may also expect humid conditions during the night and morning on Thursday in some coastal and inland areas, increasing the likelihood of fog or haze formation.

Winds are expected to be light to moderate, blowing from southeast to northeast at speeds of 10 to 25 km/h, and may occasionally intensify up to 40 km/h as cloud cover develops. These winds are also capable of raising dust in some zones. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea is expected to remain calm.

The highest temperatures in Dubai and Sharjah will reach 38°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see 39°C. On Wednesday, the minimum temperature will drop to 27°C in Sharjah, 29°C in Dubai, and 30°C in Abu Dhabi.

NCM warned about the possibility of periodic heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the UAE this week. The meteorological department noted that the intensity of precipitation may vary, and some areas might face thunderstorms and stronger winds as clouds develop.

As rain-bearing clouds move deeper into the UAE this week, residents should expect not only rain but also sporadic heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and gusty winds that could affect ground conditions.

The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) warned that downdrafts from developing clouds are capable of lifting dust and sand, leading to reduced visibility, especially in open areas. Residents are also advised to exercise caution near mountainous terrain.

Meteorologist Ahmed Habib from NCM told Khaleej Times on Monday that the forming weather system could bring precipitation of varying intensity as clouds spread from the eastern and northern parts of the country to coastal areas. He specified that rain is expected from Monday until the end of the current week.

There is a possibility of convective clouds forming, which will begin to develop in the eastern and northern parts of the country before spreading to the inland areas between Al Ain, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi, and then moving towards Ad Dhafra.

Rain may reach the inland areas of Dubai, including areas near Miraf, as well as sections along the routes between Dubai and Al Ain, and between Abu Dhabi and Al Ain. Other areas where downpours may occur include Suwaeihan and parts of Ad Dhafra, including Madinat Zayed and Zayed City.

Habib explained the forecast conditions by stating that the expansion of low pressure from the Arabian Sea combined with another low-pressure system moving from the southwest brings additional moisture into the atmosphere. Atmospheric updrafts also contribute to the formation of convective clouds, which are expected to first develop in the eastern part of the UAE and then spread inland.

Precipitation may vary in intensity, and some areas may experience thunderstorms and stronger winds as these clouds develop. Fresh winds are also possible due to downdrafts from these clouds, which could potentially cause dust and sand to be lifted and visibility to worsen, especially in open territories.

NCM advised residents to exercise caution, especially where visibility is deteriorating, and to avoid dangerous places, particularly near mountains.

Despite the expected rain in some parts of the country, no significant temperature changes are forecast in the near term. Habib noted that the same air mass will remain over the UAE, although cloud cover may cause local temperature fluctuations.

However, the country is already experiencing a gradual cooling as autumn sets in. Between the end of September and the first week of October, temperatures have dropped by approximately four to five degrees Celsius. Habib emphasized that maximum temperatures are gradually falling, and nighttime and early morning temperatures are also decreasing. Some stations in inland areas and mountains are recording temperatures of 20°C or below.

Temperatures are expected to continue to decrease slowly, although readings this year have been 'slightly above average for this time of year.' Habib stressed that this difference is not substantial.

These variable conditions are typical for the UAE autumn season. Habib added that it is currently autumn, when weather conditions can change rapidly from stable to unstable. During the day, conditions may become relatively unstable, while at night humidity tends to increase, especially in coastal areas. Fog may also form in some localized spots. These are typical signs of autumn, which is a transitional period where weather conditions can change abruptly.

An experienced forecaster reported that NCM monitors conditions around the clock using meteorological radar, satellite imagery, and data collected at its monitoring stations. He concluded that since downpours may affect various parts of the country in the coming days, 'residents should remain vigilant regarding official weather updates, especially when traveling through open areas or near mountainous terrain.'

According to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, temperatures across the UAE are running 3–4 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm. Although autumn has started relatively dry, precipitation exceeding average levels is expected.

Speaking on Dubai Radio, Al Jarwan noted that residents continue to experience warmer than usual conditions, despite the general improvement in weather as the country transitions into cooler months.

He linked the current weather conditions to the El Niño phenomenon, a natural climatic event associated with warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and suggested that this phenomenon will intensify in October, November, and early December. Furthermore, rainfall above the average level is anticipated.

Al Jarwan reported that during the first week of October, daytime highs typically reach the mid-thirties Celsius, while nighttime lows fluctuate around 22–23°C. However, he mentioned that recent maximum temperatures in most parts of the country have ranged from 37°C to 43°C, citing reports from the National Center for Meteorology (NCM).

The persistent warmth aligns with the relatively dry autumn conditions he previously predicted. High humidity during this time of year is not unusual; it can exceed 80% in coastal areas and over 70% inland, contributing to morning fog formation.

Al Jarwan explained that fog is characteristic of October and November, occurring for more than ten days in each month. He emphasized that while fog and high humidity are natural phenomena, temperatures remain above average.

Explaining this phenomenon, Al Jarwan noted that temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean can influence weather patterns far beyond the ocean itself. He connected El Niño to increased rainfall in several regions worldwide, including the Arabian Peninsula, but stressed that its impact varies depending on the location.

A stronger episode may be accompanied by more pronounced weather extremes, ranging from drought in some regions to heavy rains or storms in others. He emphasized that El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle, not an environmental problem comparable to ozone depletion.

When Will Conditions Become More Moderate?

Al Jarwan added that as the UAE progresses through the autumn transition period, temperatures are expected to become more moderate. He referred to the local traditional calendar, stating that the country is in the period of 'Durr al-Sittin' and will approach 'Durr al-Sab'in' around mid-October—a time of milder weather before winter, which differs from the period of severe cold in the northern Arabian Peninsula.

Increased cooling may lead to strong winds and rain-bearing systems, although the seasonal wind event he mentioned has not yet occurred.

Previously, in an interview with Khaleej Times, NCM expert Dr. Ahmed Habib had predicted a hotter summer in the UAE compared to previous years. Habib linked the overall regional warming to El Niño but insisted that actual temperatures would depend on the weather systems affecting the country at any given time.

He also explained that the thermal minimum associated with the Indian monsoon system directed hot air towards the southern parts of the UAE, leading to daytime temperatures of 47–48°C at that time. Habib noted that northwesterly winds carrying dry desert air limited cloud formation and rainfall. He added that the main rainy season in the UAE usually occurs from mid-July to mid-August, when the shift of the tropical convergence zone northward allows moisture to reach the country and supports the development of rain clouds, especially in eastern areas and sometimes around Liwa.