According to the National Meteorological Center (NCM), the El Niño climate phenomenon is likely to last until February 2027, which may affect temperatures and precipitation levels in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The latest climate forecast indicates a 96% probability that El Niño conditions will persist until March 2027, with temperatures and rainfall potentially exceeding average levels in the UAE.
The peak of this phenomenon is projected to occur in October and November 2026, when the Niño 3.4 index is expected to reach approximately +3°C, indicating a very strong event.
El Niño represents a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle—a natural climate pattern that involves changes in sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, influencing weather conditions thousands of kilometers away.
The Niño 3.4 index is used to monitor the phenomenon as it measures sea surface temperature anomalies in a key region of the tropical Pacific. El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and last about nine to twelve months, although their intensity and duration vary.
In an explanation released on September 11, NCM characterized the current El Niño event as very strong and noted that it could contribute to rainfall in the UAE. However, heavy downpours are only possible under favorable local weather conditions.
The Center also emphasized that the phenomenon itself does not guarantee extreme rainfall, storms, or flooding in the country, as its impact depends on the region and season, as well as local weather systems. NCM refuted viral social media reports warning of severe flooding directly linked to El Niño and urged residents to trust official weather forecasts and warnings.
Earlier this year, NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib told Khaleej Times that the influence of El Niño on the UAE might become more noticeable in autumn, particularly in October and November. Habib stated: 'Starting from autumn, especially in October and November, the influence of El Niño will be felt over our region. Currently, during the summer season, its influence is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia.'
He added that this phenomenon could increase humidity over the UAE and raise the probability of precipitation, depending on local weather conditions.