Expert notes that India's GDP per capita is approaching the level of rich countries
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Aaj Tak
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Expert notes that India's GDP per capita is approaching the level of rich countries

The Indian economy continues to receive positive assessments, with major institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank recognizing the successes of the Indian economy. These agencies have raised their GDP growth forecasts for the country, noting its acceleration despite global difficulties.

A Korean economist provided additional positive news, stating that India's GDP per capita is reaching the level of developed countries. He detailed his conclusions through a series of posts on the social network X, supporting them with statistical data.

According to South Korean economist Kyung Hoon Kim, the assessment of India's economic progress should be based not only on the current level of wealth or poverty but also on the pace of improvement in the country's standard of living and its competitiveness compared to other economies. He emphasized that the reduction in poverty and the growth in per capita income in India deserve praise.

Kyung Hoon Kim, head of the India and South Asia team at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIIP), stated on Sunday that his previous assessments of India's medium-term development prospects, which suggested the country was still poor, had drawn some comments. In his detailed post on the social network Twitter (now X), he posed a more relevant question: 'Is the standard of living improving and is India moving forward in this regard?'

Sharing data in his post, Kim pointed out that in 2025, India's GDP per capita was $2,702, and when adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), it was $11,784. For historical comparison, he used the stable price PPP per capita GDP for 2021, which amounted to $10,039 in 2025.

Kim noted that the World Bank classified India as a low-income country until 2007. In 1990, India's GDP per capita exceeded the average for low-income countries by only 15%. However, by 2025, this figure had increased more than fourfold compared to the average and reached 64% of the average for upper-middle-income countries, with most of this growth occurring in the last decade alone. He also indicated that even when compared to upper-middle-income economies like fast-growing China and Vietnam, there is a clear improvement.

Kim wrote in his post: 'My post on India's medium-term growth prospects attracted significant attention, with some comments like 'but India is still poor.' A more useful question is whether the standard of living is improving and is India moving forward in this regard? Let's look at the data.'

According to Kim, India is constantly working to reduce the income gap with rich countries. Although India's progress is slow compared to high-income economies, it is steady. In 1990, India's GDP per capita was only 6% of the average for high-income countries, whereas by 2025, this share grew to 17%.

Nevertheless, the economist attributed this improvement also to the slowdown in economic growth in many rich countries. India's GDP per capita is also approaching half of the global average, whereas in 1990, it was only one-fifth.

Kim praised India, writing: 'Overall, India is moving ahead of low-income countries, approaching the level of high-income countries, and rapidly advancing towards middle-income status.' He also refuted the idea that developing countries automatically reach the level of wealthy economies, stating: 'Equality does not happen by itself.'

According to the economist, the number of Indians living in poverty has decreased by 627 million people. One of the most important results of India's economic progress has been the reduction in poverty. The poverty rate in India fell from 73% in 2004 to just 14% in 2023, based on a poverty line of $4.40 per day. Kim noted that these improvements are particularly significant given that India's population is about 1.4 billion people.

He concluded: 'My conclusion is this: although India faces many challenges, its economic growth, especially over the last decade, and the positive medium-term development outlook deserve praise. This progress is extremely important for a country with a population of 1.4 billion.'

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Goldman Sachs warns of serious risks for developed markets and India amid interest rate hikes
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Goldman Sachs warns of serious risks for developed markets and India amid interest rate hikes

Goldman Sachs has expressed concern regarding potential major threats associated with changes in interest rates. According to a Global Investment Research study, an increase in interest rates by 100 basis points, or 1%, could lead to a 0.6% decline in the GDP of developed markets next year. This is attributed to increased pressure on consumer inflation, domestic spending, corporate investment, and government financing due to high borrowing costs.

The study, conducted by Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Johan Alan, detailed the impact of high interest rates on four sectors: housing, consumer spending and credit, corporate investment, and government borrowing and deficit.

An analysis of the situation in India was also conducted, noting that the country may face serious consequences. Weak economic activity could negatively affect demand for Indian products, including machinery, engineering goods, and the automotive sector. However, it should be noted that Goldman Sachs' forecasts are based on developed economies and do not provide a direct assessment of the impact on India's exports.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, a 100 basis point rise in interest rates could cause an average decrease in business investment in developed countries by 1.8%. The strongest impact may be felt in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Germany, where the drop in investment could be 3.5%, 3.1%, and 2.1%, respectively.

Rate increases may prompt companies to postpone factory expansions, equipment purchases, and other capital expenditures. If European companies reduce investments, Indian suppliers serving these markets will have to face reduced orders and revenue pressure.

This risk is relevant to the Indian machinery sector, which maintains strong export growth. Data from the industry organization EEPC India shows that engineering product exports grew by 18.21% in the first quarter of the 2027 fiscal year compared to the previous year, reaching $46.38 billion, up from $39.24 billion the year before.

Goldman Sachs asserts that rising interest rates increase the cost of repayment for consumer loans, leaving families with less money for discretionary spending. Goldman Sachs forecasts suggest that a 100 basis point rate hike will lead to an average decrease in consumer spending in developed countries by 0.2%. The economies of Australia, Sweden, and Canada will be most affected in this regard.

Real estate investment also presents a risky area. The report suggests that a 100 basis point increase in bond yields could lead to a decline in US housing investment by approximately 8% over the next one to two years.

Governments may face increased interest expenses when refinancing existing loans and as rates rise. This will depend on the structure of government debt repayment and the increase in borrowing costs due to high interest rates.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the combined effect of these four factors could lead to a 0.6% reduction in the GDP of developed nations next year. For India, the key question is whether export growth will slow down due to weak investment and consumer demand in major export markets, and whether it will put pressure on the revenues of companies operating significantly abroad. These assessments represent a hypothetical view based on a 100 basis point interest rate increase, not a prediction that rates will necessarily rise by exactly that amount.

IMF raises India's growth forecast to 7% for FY2027 due to strong domestic demand
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business-standard.com

IMF raises India's growth forecast to 7% for FY2027 due to strong domestic demand

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for India by 60 basis points, bringing it to 7 percent for the fiscal year 2026–2027. This increase is attributed to sustained domestic demand and activity in the services sector.

According to the IMF's latest report, 'World Economic Outlook,' published on Tuesday, the fund also raised its growth forecast for the fiscal year 2028 by 30 basis points, setting it at 7 percent. The fund noted that this improvement reflects a stronger-than-expected economic momentum supported by domestic demand and services.

The IMF links India's growth potential to favorable demographic dynamics, the presence of a large and growing domestic market, and ongoing structural reforms. The fund emphasized that India continues to be one of the largest fast-growing economies.

This adjustment comes after upward revisions from other institutions. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the World Bank also raised their growth forecasts for the fiscal year 2027 to 7.1 percent. The IMF expects consumer price inflation in India to average 5 percent in the fiscal year 2027 before declining to 4.4 percent in the fiscal year 2028. This forecast is lower than the latest RBI projection of 5.2 percent for the current fiscal year.

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