Given forecasts suggesting that El Niño conditions could lead to 1200 deaths in the country, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) advises the public to implement water collection and storage systems to manage water needs during periods of intense heat.
These weather patterns typically cause reduced summer rainfall across South Africa, potentially increasing the risk of water shortages and placing additional strain on water resources.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation, altering temperature and precipitation patterns globally.
According to Hannelie Dubbel from SAWS, temperatures above normal are expected over most of the country, along with more frequent heatwaves and extreme heat events. She specified that, unlike El Niño, overall fewer extreme weather events regarding precipitation are anticipated, but heat peaks usually occur in December and January.
Dubbel added that it is impossible to predict the exact timing of these events in the summer at a seasonal level, so she recommends monitoring short-term weather forecasts weekly. She also noted two events that stand out for their different impacts: the summer of 1982/3, which brought terrible drought conditions severely impacting agriculture, and the summer of 1997/8, which brought above-average rainfall in the latter half of the summer.
Although the current El Niño was trending towards exceeding these events, there was insufficient evidence to expect a more intense impact. She advised the public to track short-term forecasts and alerts from SAWS and be prepared to act upon receiving such warnings.
As the threat of El Niño raises concerns about food production due to drought, local farmers are declaring their readiness to combat the heat. A farmer from the Northwest, Seniren Naidu, urged farmers to accept reality in advance and not rely on hope. He advised against planting all the land if water is scarce, but instead intensively managing a smaller, well-mulched and irrigated area to achieve a harvest rather than an enormous field that would completely perish.
Naidu also recommended protecting the soil cover, reducing herd size in advance to match available grazing capacity before animals lose condition, and conserving funds. He grows over 50 acres of mixed vegetables, focusing on local African and exotic vegetables, and has over 15 years of experience in this field.
To measure and protect soil moisture, Naidu uses practical methods rather than digital sensors. He employs the 'feel method' by digging 15 to 30 centimeters into the root zone to check whether the soil forms a ball or crumbles. To retain this moisture, they strictly adhere to principles of conservation agriculture, loosening organic residues that keep the soil moist from decomposing material. This significantly reduces evaporation from the soil surface and maintains coolness in the root zones.
To save water under expected El Niño conditions, Naidu has always used precision irrigation. Although this requires more labor, it justifies the excessive use of water. Watering schedules were always set for early morning and late evening to combat evaporation and ensure plant uptake. Since the main crops are local African vegetables such as peas, amaranth, peanuts, and beans, most of them are already drought-resistant. However, drought-resistant varieties were lacking for leafy vegetables and other herbs.
Some crops managed to switch to earlier maturity times—from six months to four months, which significantly helped reduce water consumption. He emphasized that blindly relying on the first spring rain during an El Niño year is a trap, as it is often followed by a 'false start' leading to a long dry spell that kills young seedlings. They wait until the accumulated rainfall penetrates at least 20–30 centimeters into the soil profile. This allows the soil to remain moist longer, promoting stronger plant growth.
Naidu believes that his main defense and measures against El Niño lie in diversifying farm activities and maximizing water harvesting. They cleared drainage ditches and started pumping silt from dams. Furthermore, they strictly control weeds, as weeds are greedy competitors that steal scarce water and nutrients from main crops. When asked about plans for heat, Naidu stated that he strategically planned to focus on harvesting rather than planting from the peak of El Niño until its decline. Nevertheless, he noted that the snowball effect will hit them next season, but there is no firm way out of this reality in agriculture, and most importantly, it is budgeting and saving reserves to continue operations in the foreseeable future.
Farmer Donovan Gumede from Durban stated his readiness for expected heatwaves. They recently built a new borehole and installed two 10,000-liter tanks to ensure a sufficient water supply for irrigation. They have also adopted a new irrigation method: cutting plastic bottles and placing them on plants, which facilitates soil moisture retention and helps conserve water. Gumede advised other farmers to develop water-saving irrigation methods, warning against using spray sprinklers as they waste water, and insisting on securing adequate water sources before expected heatwaves.
Visane Mavasa, a representative of the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), pointed out that historically, El Niño conditions are often linked to below-average rainfall, drought, agricultural losses, and increased water stress.
DWS has implemented a risk assessment approach to early detection, evaluation, and management of potential impacts on water resources and services. Monitoring focuses on rainfall and catchment basin conditions, river flows and dam inflows, as well as national and system-specific dam storage levels. The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) issued an El Niño advisory for disaster management stakeholders in July 2026, calling for strengthening drought preparedness and response measures, including reviewing contingency plans, resilience initiatives, risk reduction measures, and public awareness.
Mavasa reported that in August, DWS held meetings with key stakeholders, including the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), water boards, catchment management agencies, municipalities, and the agricultural sector, to strengthen preparedness and coordinate measures to mitigate potential drought impacts. These meetings focused on water system utilization, water availability, distribution, and supply management measures to support sustainable management of existing water resources.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Reference Group, comprising climatologists, researchers, and institutional experts, including representatives from SAWS, ARC, universities, and CSIR, provides scientific assessment, monitoring, forecasting, and consultation on potential ENSO-related impacts. The ENSO Summit 2026/27 took place on September 26.
Mavasa stated that the department will continue to monitor water availability and manage water use allocation according to approved system operating rules and prevailing hydrological conditions. Unfortunately, municipal water distribution systems in the metropolitan areas of Gauteng and eThekwini remain highly vulnerable to sharp spikes in demand due to heatwaves. Progress in reducing per capita consumption of non-commercial water and physical losses or leaks in these municipalities is minimal, and investments in storage capacity and pumping remain insufficient. In Gauteng and eThekwini, the average daily per capita water consumption remains around 250 liters, which is higher than the global average of 173 liters.
According to the Department of Water Resources data, in Gauteng, non-commercial water accounts for about 47 percent, and physical losses account for 27 percent. In eThekwini, non-commercial water reaches about 56 percent, and physical losses reach 40 percent. Mavasa highlighted the high risk that expected hotter and drier conditions associated with El Niño could intensify seasonal demand peaks, thereby increasing the risk of prolonged water supply interruptions in Gauteng and eThekwini between October 2026 and March 2027.
DWS sets abstraction limits for water boards and other authorized water users. These limits are set at a level ensuring continuous and stable water supply under most drought conditions. Mavasa explained that limits are gradually reduced when monitoring shows that water resources are under significant stress or severe drought conditions develop.
She advised municipalities to immediately implement water consumption restrictions, as recommended by DWS and water boards, to avoid prolonged water supply interruptions this summer, and to ensure their effective enforcement. Municipalities must also effectively inform residents about the importance of reducing demand. The key question is whether municipalities can fix leaks in distribution systems, reduce average daily per capita water consumption, and promptly introduce and enforce usage restrictions if necessary.
For the agricultural sector, preparing for the El Niño dry season means managing water as a limited resource from the outset, rather than waiting for scarcity to strike. Mavasa advises farmers to closely monitor dam levels, boreholes, soil moisture, and rainfall forecasts. Daily decisions should focus on efficient water use, prioritizing high-value crops, repairing leaks, and reducing unnecessary irrigation. She added that farmers should begin preparing now for the intensive implementation of water conservation and water demand management measures.
