According to a statement by a senior executive of a regional workforce solutions firm, expatriate workers are not being displaced from the UAE and the Gulf countries, but the requirements for their employment are constantly increasing.
Pedro Laserd, Vice President of Tasc Outsourcing, noted that nationalization programs implemented in the UAE and the wider GCC region are transforming the composition of the workforce, but not as many expats fear. He emphasized that the main change lies in raising the bar for requirements for expat talent.
The UAE and other Gulf countries have launched nationalization initiatives aimed at increasing citizen participation in the workforce, especially in the private sector. For example, the Nitaqat system in Saudi Arabia sets quotas for hiring Saudis, while Oman, with its Omanisation program, and Kuwait, with Kuwaitisation, introduce similar targets. The Emiratisation initiative in the UAE requires private companies with 50 or more employees to annually increase the number of qualified Emirati employees by two percent, imposing fines for non-compliance.
Qatar and Bahrain use comparable strategies through salary and training subsidies. These measures are intended to reduce unemployment among citizens and diversify the economy beyond oil dependence.
Parallel to this, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has caused global concern regarding its impact on the labor market, as millions of workers fear that automation may replace their jobs. While AI promises increased productivity and efficiency, experts warn of a growing risk for routine professions, highlighting the urgent need for reskilling, education, and workforce adaptation.
However, Laserd believes the situation will not necessarily be so pessimistic. He posits that if GCC economies continue to grow at the current pace, the absolute number of expats may increase, even with the rise in citizens in the private sector. Thus, the key question for the next decade is not whether GCC will need expats, but what kind of expats will be needed.
Tasc Outsourcing pointed to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where fast-growing sectors such as technology, AI, healthcare, advanced manufacturing, tourism, financial services, logistics, energy, and large infrastructure projects are creating demand that one pool of talent cannot satisfy.
Laserd predicts that international recruitment will increasingly focus on niche competencies, foreign experience, and skills that are scarce locally. According to him, as UAE and GCC citizens gain experience in various fields, companies will become more selective in international recruitment. An expat employee must bring something additional, such as specialized expertise, knowledge of another market or industry, or the ability to foster local competencies.
He calls this process the 'expat improvement cycle.' The justification for hiring someone solely based on historical attraction of skills from abroad will become harder to support. As a result, a more balanced workforce is formed: 'strong national talents at the core, supplemented by international experience where it brings obvious benefit.'
Laserd summarized this shift as a change in focus. He noted that discussions about the workforce have long revolved around localization, and the next stage will be dedicated to specialization. In his view, 'the GCC is not moving towards a future without expats'; rather, it is moving towards a future where expats will increasingly have to prove why their expertise should be brought from abroad.