The International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 on Tuesday, increasing it by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, which is higher than the initial estimate made in July.
In its latest report, 'World Economic Outlook,' titled 'Resilience Under Pressure, Urgent Elections,' the IMF projects a slowdown in global growth from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, after which growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027. The forecast for 2027 remained unchanged compared to July, but it is 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
In advanced economies, growth is expected to reach 2.1% in 2026 and then decline to 1.8% in 2027. Regarding emerging markets and economies, growth is projected to slow to 3.7% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 4.4% in 2027.
The IMF noted that the world economy is not simply slowing down or accelerating, but rather experiencing a redistribution of growth depending on how exposed each country is to the energy shock caused by the war and demand related to artificial intelligence. Economies benefiting from the boom in AI investments are helping to offset the economic pressure caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated on Monday at the annual IMF and World Bank Group meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, that the acceleration of AI infrastructure investment is a key factor keeping global economic growth around the 3% mark.
Furthermore, the report forecasts an increase in the overall global inflation rate from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, followed by a decrease to 4.1% in 2027.