The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook report, forecasting robust growth in most Portuguese-speaking economies until 2027. Among these, Angola shows acceleration, while Cape Verde and Timor-Leste maintain a strong expansion pace.
Regarding Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF estimates that Angola will register 4.4% growth in 2026, surpassing the 3.1% projected for 2025, before moderating to 3.3% in 2027. Despite this, inflation is expected to remain high, falling from 20.2% this year to 10.6% in 2026 and 10.2% in 2027.
Cape Verde is pointed out as one of the best-performing African Lusophone economies, with growth projections of 5% for both 2026 and 2027, following an expected expansion of 6.3% in 2025. In this archipelago, inflation is expected to remain under control, reaching 1.2% this year and 2.8% in 2027, with a stable unemployment rate of 8.5% over the three analyzed years.
In Guinea-Bissau, a slight deceleration in growth is expected, moving from 5.8% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, and recovering to 4.9% in 2027. Inflation should remain between 2.1% and 2.5%, but the current account deficit is expected to remain high, ranging between 5.7% and 7% of GDP.
Mozambique is expected to experience a gradual recovery after the estimated contraction of 0.2% in 2025. The IMF forecasts 1% growth in 2026 and 2% in 2027. However, the external deficit remains very significant, corresponding to 41% of GDP in 2026 and 37.8% in 2027. São Tomé and Príncipe anticipates a more modest expansion, of only 0.4% in 2026, accelerating to 1.9% in 2027, although inflation is expected to rise to 11% this year, reducing to 9.6% in 2027.
Outside of Africa, the IMF forecasts a slowdown in Brazil's economic growth, from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, due to restrictive monetary conditions, reduced budgetary stimulus, and global economic uncertainty. Timor-Leste's economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, after 4.5% in 2025, keeping inflation contained at 2.1% and 2.2% in the following years, despite a very high current account deficit, at 38.5% of GDP in 2026 and 38.4% in 2027.
Additionally, the growth of the Portuguese economy was revised to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2027. The IMF highlighted that world economic activity demonstrates resilience, driven by the technology sector, financial reserves, and the capacity to adapt to geopolitical tensions.
In the global scenario, the institution predicts a slowdown in growth to 3.1% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 and fall to 4.1% the following year, with energy-importing economies not participating in the technological value chain facing the most challenging prospects.