The European Union Climate Monitor stated on Monday that the intensifying El Niño phenomenon broke temperature records in a key Pacific Ocean zone in September, which is another sign of the exceptional strength of this weather pattern.
Global meteorologists have warned for months that this El Niño is likely to be one of the strongest ever observed, and the latest record was reached even before the expected peak of this phenomenon at the end of the current year.
The warming phase of the natural climate cycle, El Niño, raises sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, causing weather changes that can increase the risk of floods and droughts, as well as exacerbate anthropogenic global warming.
Record ocean temperatures
The Copernicus Climate Service reported that the sea surface temperature in the characteristic monitoring region for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, known as Nino3.4, reached an all-time high of 29.70 degrees Celsius last month.
This figure exceeded the peak temperatures of previous strong El Niño events, such as 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016, which, according to the EU monitor, 'underscores the exceptional intensity of the current El Niño.' However, in a statement to AFP, Copernicus clarified that it cannot yet be asserted that the current El Niño is the strongest of all recorded.
Climate change may contribute to recent El Niño events appearing stronger than past ones, complicating historical comparisons. Copernicus noted that it has implemented a new index that accounts for tropical ocean warming, suggesting that the current event does not yet surpass past events.
Nevertheless, the values recorded in September 'indicate an already exceptionally strong El Niño, especially considering that the phenomenon has not yet reached its peak,' Copernicus told AFP.
Not all meteorologists use the same scale to interpret El Niño. On Friday, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that El Niño conditions had reached 'the strongest intensity on record,' with the temperature in the monitoring zone being 4 degrees Celsius above normal.
As El Niño intensified, the global average sea surface temperature in September reached a record high of 21.05 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous maximum of 20.92 degrees Celsius for the same month in 2023, according to Copernicus data.
Overall, in September, the world experienced its second hottest September in observation history, with the average air temperature at the surface being 16.27 degrees Celsius, according to the EU service. September was 1.63 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period, defined as 1850–1900.
At the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to keep global warming 'significantly below' 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, aiming to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius to minimize the impacts of climate change.
However, the United Nations announced in September that the long-term goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius would be missed within a few years. Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo stated in a statement that 'we are in a new series of months above 1.5 degrees Celsius, and with the continued strengthening of the strong El Niño, this will likely last until 2027.'
He added: 'Exceeding the long-term limit of the Paris Agreement is only a matter of time. How much we exceed and for how long still depends on us.' Scientists emphasize that it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to limit the period of 'exceeding' the 1.5-degree threshold and to lower the temperature as quickly as possible.
Experts warn that this El Niño is likely to push global temperatures to a new record in 2027. El Niño warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, causing changes worldwide in winds, pressure, and precipitation patterns. This phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to twelve months.