The 2026 El Niño has reached the highest intensity ever recorded, according to reports from the Japan Meteorological Agency. On Friday, the agency reported that temperatures in the tropical Pacific exceeded the average by up to 4°C, surpassing the previous record of 3.6°C, which occurred in December 1997.
Projections indicate that this phenomenon will continue to gain strength in the coming months, potentially causing climatic consequences in various parts of the globe. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the event is expected to intensify during October and November, culminating in its peak in December.
The WMO also assesses the maintenance of El Niño until February 2027 as almost certain. If these forecasts materialize, this episode could rank among the most severe observed since at least 1950.
El Niño is defined as a climate event characterized by rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean, near the Equator. Its impacts are global, modifying rainfall patterns and contributing to above-average temperatures in several locations.
In a statement, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo declared that the phenomenon is consolidated and rapidly strengthening. She mentioned that estimates point to a nearly 100% probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027, with the potential to be one of the most powerful ever recorded.
The accelerated rate of warming also warrants attention. Data provided by the WMO shows that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6°C above average in June 2026 to 2.5°C in August.
While the Japanese meteorological agency predicts temperatures up to 4°C above normal, the WMO estimates that this anomaly could reach about 3.7°C between October and December. Despite differences in projections, both bodies signal an event of extraordinary intensity.
Celeste Saulo explained that El Niño does not create new heat on the planet; it merely releases some of the heat already stored beneath the ocean surface. This process can lead to years with extremely high global temperatures, as seen in 2024.
The WMO Secretary-General also emphasized that the oceans are warmer than in any previous measurement, implying greater availability of heat to be released. In this context, the interaction between El Niño and climate change may favor the occurrence of extreme weather events.
The planet has already shown some of these effects in 2026, with August being the hottest month globally documented so far, accompanied by a record in sea surface temperature. Although natural variations and climate change can explain part of these extremes, El Niño likely played a significant role.
Forecasts indicate a higher chance of intense rainfall in regions such as the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, the eastern coast of Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, areas of North America south of the 45° north latitude, and southeastern South America. In these locations, increased precipitation may raise the risk of floods, landslides, and other climate disasters.
Conversely, drier conditions are expected in the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, certain areas of the Caribbean, and northwestern South America. Reduced rainfall may promote droughts and wildfires.
Extreme events have already served as a precursor to the potential impacts of the phenomenon. However, if the latest projections remain correct, the most severe effects may still occur.