The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, raising it from 1.9% (March estimates) to 3.9%. WTO economists attribute this change to the adaptation of supply chains to disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, as well as a sharp increase in demand for high-tech goods driven by the surge in artificial intelligence investments.
Meanwhile, the forecast for trade in services was lowered from 4.8% to 3.3%. These forecasts are presented in the 'Global Trade Review and Statistics' report, published on October 8. In 2027, the WTO expects merchandise trade growth to accelerate to 4.1% (up from the March forecast of 2.6%), while service trade growth is projected at 6.4%. According to the organization's estimates, the total volume of world trade in goods and services will increase by approximately 3.7% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. Furthermore, world GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% and 2.9% respectively, based on consensus forecasts.
The WTO emphasized that its 2027 forecast assumes the timely resolution of the Middle East conflict; otherwise, actual results may differ significantly from projections. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that these figures demonstrate trade resilience, as the integrated global economy and rules-based trading system allow the flow of necessary goods to be maintained.
Supply Chain Resilience Amid Energy Shock
In the first half of 2026, world merchandise trade grew by 3.5%, exceeding expectations. According to the WTO, crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24% during this period, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports fell by 47%. However, other suppliers, including the United States, Norway, and Brazil for oil, and Malaysia, Norway, and Angola for LNG, increased their supplies. As a result, global oil exports only decreased by about 6%, and LNG exports by about 1%.
A similar situation was observed in the fertilizer market. In 2024, Gulf countries accounted for 24.8% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports and 11.4% of phosphate fertilizer exports. After the conflict began, supplies through the Strait of Hormuz almost stopped, and urea prices more than doubled, reaching around $850 per ton in April before returning to pre-crisis levels of about $400 by July. Phosphate prices rose by 25%, reaching $780 per ton. Thanks to suppliers outside the region, nitrogen fertilizer imports in March-June were only 2.8% below the average for 2023–2025, and phosphate fertilizer imports were 2.2% above it.
The redirection of cargo through alternative ports and corridors helped maintain maritime transport rates: container traffic volume grew by 3.9% from the beginning of the year to July.
Artificial Intelligence Drives Nearly Half of Growth
Investments in artificial intelligence have become the main driver of trade. AI-related goods—semiconductors, servers, and other equipment—accounted for 47% of the increase in world merchandise trade by value in the first half of 2026. Trade in these goods grew by 67% year-on-year, following growth of 16% in 2024 and 31% in 2025. The share of these goods in world merchandise trade reached 14.8%, up from 7–8% in 2016–2023.
Global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30% in 2026 and another 10–20% in 2027. According to Futurum Group estimates, capital expenditures by American hyperscalers on AI in 2026 will range from $660 billion to $690 billion, while Goldman Sachs Research reports range from $725 billion to $765 billion. This represents an increase of 77% compared to 2025.
Part of this growth is due to prices. According to the European Central Bank estimates cited by the WTO, import prices for AI-related goods rose by approximately 10% in 2025 and by 20–30% in the first half of 2026.
Trade in these goods remains highly concentrated. In 2025, the ten largest players accounted for about 85% of global exports and 80% of imports. East Asia, excluding China, accounted for 40.4% of AI-related goods exports, compared to 10.8% of total merchandise exports, while Southeast Asia accounted for 23.2% compared to 8.1%. Europe's share in this segment, conversely, was 10.6% compared to 35.5% of total merchandise exports. The WTO noted that economies with weak positions in the AI value chain have not yet managed to close the gap, with a few developing players being exceptions.
The report also describes the supply chain structure: critical minerals are processed into substrates and chemicals used to manufacture chips in factories. These chips are then embedded into boards and servers for data centers. Chemicals and minerals account for about 1% of the value of AI-related merchandise trade, intermediate products for 62%, and equipment for 37%.
Regional Trends: Growth in Asia, Decline in the Middle East and CIS
According to the WTO forecast, Asia will show the fastest growth in merchandise exports in 2026 at 9.9%. It will be followed by North America (5.7%), Africa (5.6%), and South America (3.4%). European exports will remain almost unchanged, declining by 0.1%, while exports from CIS countries and the Middle East will fall by 3.9% and 17.2%, respectively.
Asia will lead import growth at 9.5%, followed by Africa (8.9%) and CIS countries (8.8%). North America and Europe are expected to show only moderate growth of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Middle East is projected to decline by 15.4%. In 2027, CIS country exports are forecast at 5.3%, and imports at 2.2%.
Asia remains the main source of global trade growth for the third consecutive year, contributing 4.0 percentage points to overall growth. The contribution of the rest of the world will be negative at -0.7 percentage points due to the sharp contraction in trade in the Middle East. Based on consensus estimates, Asia's GDP is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2026, Africa by 4.1%, South America by 2.5%, North America by 2.0%, CIS countries by 1.7%, and Europe by 1.3%. The Middle East economy is expected to contract by 4.0%.
Transport and Tourism Pressure Service Trade
The value of commercial services trade increased by 14% in the first quarter of 2026 and by 10% in the second. The slowdown is linked to the impact of the conflict on transport and tourism—sectors where the Middle East is a key global hub. In 2026, the WTO forecasts that the volume of transport services will grow by only 0.9%, and tourism services by 0.2%. Other commercial services, including digital services, are expected to be more resilient and grow by 4.8%. Computer service exports increased by 18% in the first quarter and by 12% in the second, while financial service exports grew by 14% in the second quarter.
Traveler spending abroad grew by only 5% in the second quarter compared to 15% in the first. International tourist arrivals fell by 0.8% in the second quarter and grew by only 0.4% in the first half of the year. In March, the number of international passengers carried by Middle Eastern airlines dropped by 61%, while direct passenger traffic between Europe and Asia increased by 29%.
Maritime transport has also become more expensive. By the end of June, spot rates for container shipping from Asia to North America were around $6,200–$8,000 per 40-foot container, and rates to Europe and the Mediterranean were $4,900–$6,500.
Europe is expected to show the fastest growth in service exports in 2026 at 4.6%, accounting for more than half of global growth. This will be followed by Asia (4.0%), Africa (3.1%), North America and CIS countries (1.7% each), and South and Central America (1.3%). Service exports from the Middle East, conversely, are projected to decline by 10.3%.
Oil, Inflation, and Price Indicators
Brent crude oil reached a peak of $138 per barrel on April 8, compared to approximately $70 before the conflict. After the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran in June, the price fell to about $75, but then rose again to $100. According to the International Energy Agency, cited by the WTO, before the conflict, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, of which 3.5–5.5 million barrels per day were rerouted via alternative routes.
The global inflation forecast for 2026 was raised from 3.7% to 4.7%. Gas prices in Europe exceeded $21 per million British thermal units, the highest level since 2022.
By value, world merchandise trade increased by 15% in the first half of the year, significantly faster than the 3.5% growth in physical volume. The WTO called this gap one of the largest in recent years, linking it to higher fuel prices and the rising cost of electronic components for data centers. Trade in office and telecommunications equipment grew by 49%, and fuel trade by 15%.
Value-based exports from Asia grew by 24%, Africa by 23%, South and Central America by 19%, and CIS countries by 10%. CIS country imports grew by 12%. In South America and Africa, exports were supported by higher prices for critical minerals, precious metals, and energy resources. Exports from the least developed countries grew by 25%, and imports by 20%.
Fragmentation and Risks
According to the WTO, the gap between intra- and inter-hypothetical geopolitical bloc trade narrowed in 2025–2026, meaning that bloc-based fragmentation is no longer intensifying. The main source of divergence remains the weakening of trade ties between the US and China: in 2025, US imports from China fell by 29%, and China's share in US imports decreased from 13.8% to 9.3%.
The WTO identified potential slowing of investment in AI with high import content and persistently high fuel prices as the main risks to its forecast. The difference between crude oil and fuel prices reduces household purchasing power. Additionally, the high concentration of AI companies on stock markets creates a risk to household savings in case of their valuation reassessment.