Annual inflation in Uzbekistan reached 6.4% in September 2026
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Annual inflation in Uzbekistan reached 6.4% in September 2026

According to the National Statistics Committee, annual inflation in Uzbekistan in September 2026 was 6.4%, which is lower than the 8.0% recorded in September 2025. These data were published on October 5.

During the month, consumer prices rose by 0.7%, compared to a rise of 0.6% in September 2025. Since the beginning of the year, prices have increased by 4.2%, whereas the growth from January to September 2025 was 5.1%.

Excluding fruits and vegetables, the monthly price increase was 0.7% compared to 0.5% in September 2025. Since the beginning of the year, prices have risen by 5.6%, compared to 6.7% a year earlier, and the annual increase reached 6.8% compared to 8.9% a year earlier.

Food products and non-alcoholic beverages contributed the most to the monthly indicator, increasing by 1.0%, accounting for 0.40 percentage points in the overall index. An additional 0.19 percentage points were added by prices for higher education and transport, while other categories contributed 0.14 percentage points.

Among staple foods, eggs showed the largest monthly growth, rising by 5.3% or 11.4% year-on-year. Bone-in beef increased by 1.7% monthly and 16.2% annually, while boneless beef rose by 1.1% and 17.9% respectively. Lamb prices increased by 1.3% monthly and 19.8% year-on-year. Price increases were also recorded for chicken portions (+1.2%), buckwheat (+1.1%), rice (+1.0%), and milk with butter (+0.8%). Meanwhile, sugar became cheaper by 0.9% during the month.

The Committee noted that seasonal factors influenced the price dynamics of fruits and vegetables. Citrus fruits became 12.0% cheaper during the month, grapes decreased by 5.7%, apples by 2.4%, and bananas by 1.7%. Simultaneously, tomato prices rose by 14.2% or 54.9% year-on-year, and cucumbers increased by 13.5%, carrots by 12.4%, bell peppers by 4.9%, eggplant by 4.7%, and onions by 2.6%.

The cost of educational services increased by 4.2% during the month. Since September, the average fee in state kindergartens has increased by 6.8%, due to an increase in the basic calculated cost. Private kindergartens raised prices by 1.7%, and private schools by 6.0%. The average increase in tuition fees at state universities since the new academic year was 6.3%. Private tutoring services became 1.9% more expensive, and foreign language courses by 1.8%.

Gasoline prices rose by an average of 1.2% monthly and 20.1% year-on-year. AI-92 gasoline increased by 0.7%, AI-95 by 4.2%, and AI-98 and AI-100 by 0.4%. The cost per liter of AI-92 ranged from 10,500 to 17,000 soms, AI-95 from 13,500 to 21,500 soms, and AI-98 and AI-100 from 16,500 to 28,000 soms. The price of propane increased by 4.2% monthly and 48.9% annually, reaching up to 10,000 soms per liter. Methane prices remained unchanged during the month, although they rose by 10.1% over the year.

Tickets for long-distance trains became 1.6% cheaper during the month, and air travel decreased by an average of 0.9%. According to the committee, this is due to the strengthening of the sum against the euro and Swiss franc, as well as tariff revisions by individual service providers. Courier services increased by 3.0%.

In the utility sector, tariffs for cold water supply and sewerage rose in Surkhandarya region, and housing maintenance fees increased in Navoi region. Across the country, the cost of cold water supply and sewerage increased by 2.1% monthly, and housing maintenance costs by 0.6%. Coal for household needs rose by 0.3%, and firewood by 0.8%.

By main food categories, food prices rose by 1.0% monthly and 6.3% year-on-year. Non-food items increased by 0.3% monthly and 5.8% annually. Services increased by 0.9% monthly and 7.0% year-on-year, contrasting with the annual growth of 14.9% in September 2025.

Year-on-year, insurance and financial services showed the largest growth, increasing by 43.8%. Housing and communal services, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose by 11.8%, while prices in restaurants and hotels grew by 7.5%, and transport costs by 7.2%.

Housing and communal and utility services contributed the most to the rise in prices since the beginning of the year, amounting to 1.17 percentage points, followed by food products (1.08 percentage points) and transport (0.58 percentage points). Together, these three categories accounted for 2.83 percentage points, or 67.9%, of the total increase.

The Committee did not record sharp deviations from national average indicators in the regions. The highest annual price growth was noted in Tashkent at 7.0%, as well as in the Andijan and Fergana regions at 6.7% each. The lowest annual growth was recorded in the Syrdarya region at 5.4%. Surkhandarya region showed the highest monthly growth at 0.99%.

According to the supplementary index, calculated using the geometric formula of Jevons and intended only for analytical purposes, prices rose by 0.8% in September and 3.1% since the beginning of the year. Since January 2026, the consumer price index has been calculated based on 517 goods and services, with the committee recording over two million price quotes monthly.

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Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan have fallen to a historic low
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Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan have fallen to a historic low

According to data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the expectations of the population regarding inflation decreased again in August, reaching the lowest level since the start of observations. The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months was 9.8%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than in June and July. The median estimate, which sharply rose to 9% a month ago, returned to the 8% mark.

Regional and professional differences in forecasts

Among regions, the highest inflation forecasts were recorded in the Fergana region (11.7%), followed by Tashkent (11.4%) and Surkhondaryo region (10.9%). The lowest figures were noted in Jizzakh region (8.1%), Khorezm region (8.4%), as well as in Navoi and Bukhara regions at 8.6%.

By profession, IT specialists gave the highest forecasts (11.4%). In the services and transport sectors, expectations were 11.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The lowest estimates were among agricultural workers and students, who named 8.7%.

Impact of income on inflation expectations

The highest price growth forecast was again reported by citizens with a monthly income of 30 million soums or more, whose average figure reached 15.8%. Among respondents with an income of 15–20 million soums, this figure was 12.4%, while for groups with incomes of 7–15 million soums and 20–30 million soums, it ranged from 10.5% to 11%.

The lowest inflation expectations were among citizens with an income of up to 2 million soums (7.9%) and those earning 2–4 million soums (9%).

Main factors influencing price growth

Respondents indicated higher utility tariffs and increased energy costs as the main factors influencing their price growth forecasts. These factors were named by 53% and 52% of respondents, respectively, which is slightly lower than the July figures. Transport costs ranked third, mentioned by 32% of respondents. The share of citizens linking price growth to wage increases and benefits slightly increased to 28%. Exchange rate fluctuations remained the least frequently mentioned factor, garnering 14% of mentions.

Inflation expectations among businesses

Inflation expectations among entrepreneurs also continued to decline. The average forecast among businessmen was 9.6%, which is the lowest level since the publication of relevant data. This figure dropped by 0.2 percentage points compared to July and by 0.3 percentage points compared to June. The median estimate among businesses followed the same trend as the population indicator: after rising to 9% in July, it fell to 8% in August.

By region, the highest inflation expectations among businesses were registered in Karakalpakstan (11.5%). Fergana region came in second with a figure of 11.4%. In Tashkent region, this figure was 10.3%, and in the capital, 9.9%. The lowest price growth forecasts among businesses were recorded in Navoi region (8.3%) and Namangan region (8.7%).

Sectoral factors for businesses

By sector, the highest inflation expectations among enterprises were related to transport and education, at 10.9% each, followed by agriculture at 10.6%. Figures were 7% among artisans, 8.7% in trade, and 9.2% in construction.

For businesses, the main driver of price growth was increased energy costs, named by 55% of respondents. This was followed by utility tariffs (50%), and transport costs were mentioned by 34%. Tax burden and exchange rate fluctuations were identified as factors contributing to inflationary pressure by 15% and 14% of entrepreneurs, respectively.

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