According to new World Bank forecasts, the development of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor could lead to an increase in Uzbekistan's exports to $15 billion and imports to $78 billion by 2040. This forecast is presented in a new World Bank report dedicated to the Trans-Caspian transport corridor.
Calculations show that the total growth in foreign trade volume will amount to $93 billion compared to 2023 figures for the period from 2023 to 2040. It is important to note that this refers specifically to the projected increase relative to the 2023 level, not the overall volume of Uzbekistan's foreign trade in 2040.
The World Bank views the Trans-Caspian transport corridor as a critically important route connecting Asia and Europe through Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkey. The report indicates that the development and improvement of the corridor's infrastructure could increase trade volume more than threefold and halve delivery times by 2040.
Provided that investments in infrastructure are implemented alongside reforms simplifying trade and transport processes, cargo flows are expected to increase up to fourfold, and transportation times to decrease by two and a half times.
According to World Bank estimates, at least $25 billion in investments will be required by 2040 to eliminate major infrastructure obstacles in the countries involved in the project. Furthermore, an additional nearly $30 billion is needed for the development of roads, logistics centers, terminals, rolling stock, and digital systems.
This study covers Uzbekistan together with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey.