The announcement of the Nobel Prizes is scheduled to begin on Tuesday. Portugal has representatives in various categories, including a potential laureate in literature.
Gonçalo M. Tavares, author of the epic 'The End of the United States of America,' published last November, is listed in major international betting houses as a likely winner. If successful, this would be the second Nobel Prize in Literature for Portugal after José Saramago was awarded one in 1998.
However, Gonçalo M. Tavares faces serious competition, notably from Chinese writer and literary critic Qian Xue, who is considered a favorite. Canadian Anne Carson and Australian Gerald Murnane are also among the contenders.
Portugal's participation attracts attention in another category. In the narrow Nobel Committee for Medicine, which selects and evaluates scientists, Portuguese-Swedish neurobiologist Gonçalo Castelo-Branco is participating this year.
As usual, the prizes in literature and peace generate the most anticipation this year. Despite the high activity of the global geopolitical scenario, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that the number of candidates for the Peace Prize in 2026 has decreased by 51 compared to the previous year.
Nevertheless, with a total of 287 nominees (208 individuals and 79 organizations), the prize maintains a 'consistently high' level of candidates, reflecting 'strong global interest and the current context of international tensions,' the committee noted. The historical record for the number of applications was set in 2016, when 376 nominees were registered.
In this area, bets are placed on humanitarian initiatives and influential political figures. Among the main favorites are the Sudan Emergency Response Service, a humanitarian aid network that won, among other things, the Right Livelihood Award last year, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is facing sanctions and restrictions from the US, particularly due to arrest warrants issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Also on the list of favorites is the widow of the late Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya, whom bookmakers actively support for her fight against authoritarianism and defense of democracy. Furthermore, Pope Leo XIV is mentioned as a global voice calling for an end to hostility.
Among the 'classic' candidates are US President Donald Trump, whose candidacy was publicly supported by leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, who cited his diplomatic efforts to resolve geopolitical conflicts, as well as his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky for leading the resistance to the invasion of the country.
The official announcement of the 2026 Peace Prize winner will take place in Oslo on October 9, near the end of the announcement week, which will begin with the laureate in medicine, followed by the physics laureate on Tuesday, and the chemistry laureate the next day.
The literature prize will be awarded on Thursday, and all announcements will conclude the following Monday, October 12, with the award of the economics prize.
This year, each category will receive 12 million Swedish kronor (about 1.1 million euros), representing a 9% increase from the previous monetary award. The Nobel Foundation decided to raise the amount to mark the 125th anniversary of the first awards ceremony held in 1901.
The prize ceremonies are held simultaneously on December 10 in Oslo for the Nobel Peace Prize and in Stockholm for the other categories.