The claim that November 13, 2026, will be the end of the world stems from a real scientific study, although it is often presented without proper context.
In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster, along with researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot, published a paper titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. This study employed a mathematical model to project global population growth over about two thousand years.
By applying this future trend, the researchers identified a so-called mathematical singularity for the year 2026. The specific date, November 13, coincided with von Foerster's birthday and was chosen in a seemingly humorous way, which helped turn the study into a lasting scientific curiosity.
It is important to note that the model did not indicate the extermination of humanity on that day. In an interview with Time magazine, von Foerster clarified that the choice of the term was provocative, because, according to the equation, the number of people would tend toward infinity, leading humanity to 'squeeze' to death. However, this infinite population was seen as a singularity of the mathematical model, not as a plausible physical event.
The article itself warned against the dangers of extrapolating an equation too far beyond the period during which the original data were collected. The authors demonstrated this by applying the same logic retroactively, which would result in an 'Adam' billions of years in the past, a conclusion incompatible with current knowledge about the age of the Universe.
Simply put, a singularity is a point where an equation ceases to provide a conventional result and may assume infinite values, which does not necessarily imply that the described phenomenon occurs in the physical world. In the case of the 1960 study, the singularity signaled the limit of the model's ability to describe population growth under certain conditions; the change in these conditions altered population behavior.
In subsequent decades, several factors modified global demographic dynamics. With industrialization and increased wealth in countries, birth rates began to fall, causing population growth to stop following the explosive trajectory used in von Foerster's extrapolation.
According to estimates from the United Nations (UN), the world population reached about 8.2 billion in 2025. Current projections indicate a population peak around the 2080s, at around ten billion inhabitants, not infinite growth in 2026. This demonstrates that humanity is not close to the singularity predicted by the 1960 model.
The development of demography proves that such predictions require caution, since human populations do not grow constantly and are not isolated from social, economic, and technological changes.
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Although the projection of infinite population did not materialize, a historical analysis noted that von Foerster's predictions were, for a time, more aligned with the real evolution of the population than some projections by contemporary demographers.
The main focus of the work was not to predict the disappearance of billions or the achievement of an infinite population, but rather to warn about the risks inherent in rapid population growth and the need to reconcile the population with available planetary resources.
The study drew criticism for using mathematical extrapolation to reach a conclusion considered exaggerated. In 1961, researcher Marvin Shinbrot criticized the work in an article in the journal Science, classifying it as an example of inappropriate use of mathematics to support an absurd conclusion.
There is nothing extraordinary predicted for humanity on this date based on this study. November 13, 2026, merely represents the point where the 1960 equation would place the world population in a mathematical singularity. A paper published in 2026 revised the equation and reinforced that the singularity should not be interpreted literally, highlighting that the global population trajectory began to diverge from the original hyperbolic curve already in the 1970s due to falling fertility rates.
Thus, although November 13, 2026, may be an interesting date, there is no scientific basis to consider it an apocalypse prediction. It is an example of how a mathematical equation, when excessively extrapolated beyond its original data, can generate a surprising result that persists for decades after its initial context is forgotten.