The 2026/27 season begins for producers amidst numerous critical decisions. In a scenario where costs, yields, exchange rates, and the international market are rapidly changing, the sale of soybeans and grain crops should not be based solely on the feeling of whether 'the soybean price is good or bad.' Pre-selling soybeans, just like decisions regarding corn, requires considering margins, cash needs, and risk exposure. This is where risk management in agribusiness becomes part of the farm's strategy.
The scale of the next season underscores the importance of these decisions. Initial forecasts published by the National Supply Corporation (Conab) indicate that Brazilian grain harvest in the 2026/27 season could reach 366.6 million tons. The initial forecast for soybeans is around 181.6 million tons, and the total corn production volume may approach 148 million tons. These figures help assess the market but do not answer the main question within each farm.
When is the right time to sell?
The answer is rarely found in a single quote. Before making a commercial decision, at least eight aspects must be considered.
1. Start with the cost of production, not the quote
The question 'How much does a bag cost at price X?' is common, but it lacks fundamental information to answer it: 'Good for whom?'. One price might provide an interesting margin for one farm but be insufficient for another. This occurs due to differences in cost structure, yield, rent, financing, storage, logistics, and operational efficiency. Therefore, before looking at Chicago, the dollar, or the exchange price, the producer must know their own metrics.
It is necessary to answer: How much does it cost to produce a bag? What is the break-even point? At what price does the margin corresponding to business risk begin to be secured? Consider two producers selling soybeans at a fixed rate of 130 reais per bag. If the first's actual cost is 95 reais, and the second's is 120 reais, they face the same quote but completely different commercial situations. The market price is the same, but the margin is not. This approach changes the way commercialization is done.
Calculate before deciding
To aid in this analysis, Agrinvest provides a free tool to simulate the minimum price for stored soybeans. With its help, the producer can enter their data and get a clearer reference point before making a commercial decision.
2. Price is not margin
This is perhaps one of the most important points for the 26/27 season. Commercialization often draws attention to the nominal price of the bag. However, a high price does not automatically mean a better result. If costs have also increased, part of that profit disappears. Similarly, a price below the historical record can represent a good commercial opportunity if it guarantees an interesting margin for that specific farm. Therefore, the question 'Will it increase further?' can be replaced by more useful questions: What margin does this price give me? Does this margin match my planning? What production volume makes sense to lock in at this level? What risks am I eliminating by making this sale? What opportunities am I preserving?
This seemingly minor shift completely changes the logic of commercialization. The goal ceases to be hitting the market peak; it transforms into building results throughout the entire season.
3. What production volume is already reserved?
Another common mistake is to view every sales offer in isolation. Imagine a favorable opportunity arises today. Before concluding the deal, one should ask: what volume of expected production has already been sold? There is a significant difference between a producer who has reserved 10% of their volume and one who has already concluded deals for 70%. A new sale will affect each of them differently. Therefore, commercialization must be viewed as a portfolio of decisions. A producer can divide their volume across different times, prices, instruments, and strategies. This reduces dependence on hitting one specific date. It also allows tracking the season's development. As weather, yield, and the market become clearer, new percentages can be sold. There is no universally correct percentage for everyone. The central point is knowing what volume is already reserved, what remains at risk, and why.
4. Consider climate risk before pre-selling
Pre-selling soybeans and corn can be an important tool for seizing opportunities and reducing price uncertainty. But there is a downside to this decision: production risk. When a farm sells before harvest, it takes on a delivery obligation. If yield decreases, the available volume may be less than planned. Therefore, price and climate cannot be analyzed separately. The decision to pre-sell must take into account factors such as: the farm's historical yield; the crop stage; weather forecasts; actually planted volume; confidence level in production; the amount already locked in previous contracts. The higher the uncertainty regarding yield, the more important it is to carefully assess the reserved volume. At the national level, Conab itself notes that the results of the 26/27 season will depend on weather conditions during crop development. This is another example that commercialization is not just an attempt to beat the price; it is a necessity to manage various risks simultaneously.
5. Chicago went up. Does that mean Brazilian soybeans will also rise?
Not always. To understand the price of soybeans in Brazil, it is necessary to observe various components. Among the most significant are Chicago + exchange rate + premium + basis + local market conditions. The combination of these factors helps explain why a positive movement in one of them does not always fully reflect in the price received by the producer.
Chicago
The Chicago Exchange is one of the main international benchmarks for soybeans and corn. Quotes can react to factors such as: US harvest; climate; global stocks; Chinese demand; fund positions; USDA reports; global supply and demand. But Chicago is only part of forming the Brazilian price.
Exchange Rate
The dollar has a direct impact on converting international benchmarks into reais. This means Chicago can rise while the dollar falls simultaneously. Depending on the magnitude of each movement, some of the growth may be canceled out. The reverse also happens. A stronger dollar can help maintain prices in reais even when international quotes decline.
Premium
The premium reflects specific export market conditions. Brazilian supply, international demand, port availability, and the pace of commercialization can change this component. Therefore, only watching the Chicago screen means missing the whole picture.
Basis
It depends on regional supply and demand conditions, location, logistics, product availability, and the timing of commercialization. Understanding this dynamic allows one to see opportunities that might be unnoticed when looking only at the main quote. Such comprehensive reading is one of the competencies of specialists involved in professional commodity commercialization.
6. Cash flow needs are also part of the strategy
Not every commercial decision will be made at the most advantageous market moment. The farm has obligations. Resources, rent, salaries, financing, equipment, storage, and various expenses need to be paid. Therefore, the commercialization strategy must align with the farm's cash flow. Imagine a producer who believes in a rise in soybean prices in the coming months and decides to leave 100% of production exposed to risk. The market hypothesis may be correct. But if they urgently need to sell to meet a financial obligation, they may be forced to negotiate at an unfavorable time. The problem in this case was not necessarily in market analysis, but in the lack of connection between commercialization and cash flow. Preliminary planning of volumes that can cover known obligations reduces the need for decisions made under pressure.
7. Pre-sale or waiting for the market?
This is likely one of the most frequent questions in the 26/27 season. And it represents a false dilemma. The decision does not always have to be: sell everything now or wait for everything. There is an intermediate path. Commercialization can happen in stages. Some portion can be sold in advance to secure a certain margin, while another can remain open for future opportunities. Futures contracts, options, and other strategies allow for building various combinations of hedging and market participation. This does not eliminate risks but expands available alternatives. The fundamental point is understanding what risk each instrument mitigates and what risks remain.
8. Work with scenarios, not certainty
Perhaps the most important skill in commercialization is accepting uncomfortable reality: no one knows for sure what the market will do. Chicago can rise or fall. The dollar can change direction. The climate can improve or worsen. China can accelerate purchases or reduce its presence. Therefore, a good plan should not depend on a single forecast. The alternative is building scenarios.
Scenario 1: The market improves. If Chicago rises, the dollar remains stable, and premiums improve, what is the strategy? Is there a target price for selling another batch? Scenario 2: The market stabilizes. If quotes remain close to current levels, is the margin still interesting? Are there cash obligations that need to be met? Scenario 3: The market deteriorates. If Chicago falls or the exchange rate reduces the competitiveness of the Brazilian price, what part of the margin will be protected? What production volume is still at risk? Preliminary consideration of these possibilities reduces emotional decisions. Instead of reacting to every daily movement, the producer starts executing the plan.
The task is not prediction. The task is making the best decisions.
Agricultural commercialization is often associated with trying to guess the next market move. But this is not necessarily the main skill of a good merchant. The task is to make consistent decisions, even without knowing the future. To do this, the producer can track a number of indicators: cost per bag; break-even point; projected margin; expected yield; percentage of commercialized production; average selling price; cash needs; Chicago; exchange rate; premium; basis; remaining risk. With this organized data, the question ceases to be simply: 'What is the soybean price today?' It turns into: 'What does this price mean within the framework of my strategy?' This is an important distinction.
Agrinvest works with both sides of this knowledge: education and the market. Understanding commercialization in theory is important. But this knowledge takes on a different dimension when it arises from the practical experience of those who participate in the market daily. Agrinvest Commodities has been operating in the commodity market since 1987 and offers solutions including market analysis, risk management, physical market intermediation, and access to futures markets. The company is also present in the daily operations of trade intermediation and risk management, connecting buyers and sellers in physical and international markets and supporting various chain participants.
