The shortage of international tourists in 2025 cost South Africa R6.5 billion in direct foreign tourist spending, not including broader economic consequences.
In the first seven months of 2026, South Africa welcomed 6.6 million international guests. However, a significant rise in regional visitors masks the slowdown in recovery in overseas markets, with billions of rand in potential tourism spending remaining at risk.
According to the latest tourism trend report from BDO South Africa, arrivals increased by 12% compared to the same period last year and exceeded 2019 levels by 12%. African guests accounted for 5.2 million people, which is 17% more than in 2019, while international arrivals reached 1.37 million, remaining 5% below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Contribution
According to the Statistics South Africa Tourism Satellite Account published in March, the sector directly supported approximately 953,981 jobs in 2024, accounting for 5.7% of total employment. Tourism added 185,158 jobs and contributed R361.7 billion to the gross domestic product, or 4.9%. Total tourism spending in South Africa in 2024 reached R779.2 billion, although domestic visitors accounted for 85% of this amount.
International guest spending remained below pre-pandemic levels, amounting to R113.9 billion compared to R121.5 billion in 2019, according to Statistics South Africa. It should be noted that these Tourism Satellite Account estimates are for 2024 and do not reflect current arrival data.
No Turning Back
Le-Ann Buck, Director of Advisory Services at BDO South Africa, noted that the South African tourism industry has undergone significant changes since its peak in 2018 and 2019. She added that a return to the industry's former state is unlikely, requiring market participants to adapt their strategies. The market has become more multifaceted and is determined less by the country and more by lifestyle and life stage.
The BDO report showed strong regional performance during the first seven months: arrivals from Mozambique grew by 30%, from Zimbabwe by 12%, and from Lesotho by 15%. Nevertheless, African air arrivals lost momentum mid-year. After growing by 16% in the first four months, they decreased by 2% from May to July compared to the corresponding period last year. BDO linked this slowdown to reports of Afrophobic sentiment, although the arrival data itself does not establish the cause.
The government has set a target to attract an additional 750,000 international air passengers by the end of 2027.
China and India Face Difficulties
BDO found that from January to July, only 18,000 Chinese tourists visited South Africa, which is 67% lower than in 2019 and 24% less than the previous year. India remained 49% below 2019 levels, and arrivals fell another 31% compared to the first seven months of 2025.
Statistics South Africa data for July showed a similar picture: Chinese arrivals dropped by 20% to 2,669, and arrivals from India decreased by 26.9% to 3,808. BDO identified limited direct flights, route disruptions via the Middle East, and the need for better understanding of these markets as persistent challenges. This occurred despite the introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme in February 2025. The electronic visa authorization system was officially launched in August 2026, after a period covered by arrival data.
Accommodation Revenue Slows
The increase in arrivals was not accompanied by an equally strong rise in accommodation revenue. In the June tourism update, Investec economist Lara Hodges noted that tourism accommodation revenue, excluding sales in restaurants and bars, grew by 2.2% year-on-year in May, slowing down compared to 5.9% in April and 13.7% in March.
Hotels showed a growth of 2.8%, while other accommodation types, including lodges, guesthouses, and self-catering units, increased revenue by 3.7%. Hodges stated: 'However, as geopolitical risks ease and travel sentiment improves, the South African tourism sector is likely to benefit from ongoing efforts to enhance visitor experiences. Including visa reforms, improved air connectivity, targeted safety initiatives, and investment in tourism infrastructure. Indeed, tourism continues to be a critical driver of economic growth and employment in South Africa.'
The tourism sector directly supported approximately 953,981 jobs in 2024, accounting for 5.7% of total employment.
Aggressive Competition
Meanwhile, BDO stated that South Africa needs to adapt to changes in international tourism instead of relying on a return to pre-pandemic travel models. Buck noted: 'Competition has certainly become more aggressive and is coming from previously unnoticed countries and regions. This raises the question: is South Africa structured enough to cope with these changes? Based on current figures, the answer is clearly no, except perhaps for specific destinations such as Cape Town and elite safari lodges.'
The firm called for enhanced international marketing, improved air connectivity, the creation of an air access development fund, and greater attention to crime and urban decay. The government has set a target to attract an additional 750,000 international air passengers by the end of 2027.