According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), a substantial increase in gasoline prices is expected in October, potentially amounting to almost 2.80 Rand per liter, and for diesel fuel—around 3 Rand per liter. This could potentially raise retail gasoline prices to about 29 Rand, while wholesale diesel prices could exceed 33 Rand.
Drivers in South Africa will face a sharp increase in fuel costs in October, as CEF reports indicate an almost record-high rise for both gasoline and diesel fuel. CEF data demonstrates significant undercoverage at petrol stations and wholesale markets.
Specifically, 95 octane gasoline is undercovered by 2.78 Rand per liter, and 93 octane gasoline by 2.62 Rand per liter. The deficit for diesel fuel is even greater: 2.63 Rand per liter for fuel with 0.05% sulfur content and 3.00 Rand per liter for fuel with 0.005% sulfur content.
Under current conditions, CEF forecasts suggest the following changes in October. Retail gasoline prices may approach 29 Rand per liter, with one scenario reaching 29.70 Rand per liter, surpassing the June high of 28.06 Rand. Wholesale diesel prices could rise above 33 Rand per liter; for example, the figure cited is 33.05 Rand per liter, compared to the May record of 31.88 Rand.
The source attributes the pressure on global fuel markets to the escalation of the conflict related to the Russia-Ukraine war, including drone attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on Russian diesel fuel supplies. Analysts warn that such disruptions could lead to tighter supply and increased global costs.
Economists quoted in the source caution that rising fuel prices will lead to increased transport costs, a reduction in disposable household income, and heightened inflationary pressure. Furthermore, the same analysis forecasts that South Africa's GDP will be 1.2%.
Thus, CEF data indicates that drivers should expect a challenging month at gas stations in October, as the fuel price hike is likely to affect both households and businesses.