According to an analysis by Forvis Mazars, the banking systems of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have undergone a period of rapid expansion between 2021 and 2025. This growth has become one of the key drivers of financial intermediation in the region. The study provides a detailed picture of changes in bank assets, loan portfolios, deposit bases, capital adequacy, and profitability in these three countries over the five-year period, assessing not only quantitative indicators but also the quality of this growth, including the stability of funding sources, the ratio of lending to GDP growth, and risks associated with accelerated balance sheet expansion.
Kazakhstan maintains the status of the largest banking sector in the region. Its assets increased from $87 billion to $141 billion, and the asset-to-GDP ratio reached 47%. Uzbekistan demonstrates the most balanced dynamics: assets grew by almost 1.9 times, reaching $77 billion, with moderate growth in lending and return on equity (ROE) approaching the figures of developed banking systems. Kyrgyzstan recorded the fastest deepening of the financial market: assets grew by 3.5 times to $14 billion, and the asset-to-GDP ratio reached 64%, the highest among the three countries. However, this rapid growth was accompanied by the highest volatility in lending and profitability, requiring careful assessment of asset quality and capital sustainability.
As banking intermediation becomes an increasingly important element of economic growth, the Forvis Mazars analysis highlights both the successes and vulnerabilities of the region. International comparisons show that Central Asian countries still lag behind developed economies in financial depth, although they already surpass them in some profitability indicators. The authors note that understanding this gap is critical for forecasting the trajectory of the region's banking sector development over the next five years.
In Kazakhstan, bank assets grew by 62% between 2021 and 2025, increasing from $87 billion to $141 billion. The most significant growth occurred in 2025, when assets increased by 19%, and the asset-to-GDP ratio rose from 40% in 2024 to 47% in 2025. This indicates that the banking sector is not just growing in absolute terms but is also playing an increasingly significant role in redistributing the economy's financial resources, expanding banks' capabilities to finance business, consumption, and investment. Nevertheless, the depth of Kazakhstan's banking sector remains moderate by international standards; the World Bank points out that credit and banking depth indicators in financially developed economies are generally much higher.
The loan portfolio in Kazakhstan increased from $47 billion in 2021 to $87 billion in 2025. After slowing to 3% in 2024, lending growth jumped to 28% in 2025, and the loan-to-GDP ratio rose to 29%, the highest in the reporting period. This means that bank credit has once again become a more important source of financing for the economy and can support business activity and investment. However, lending growth exceeding the pace of economic growth requires monitoring of credit quality, as a rapid increase in leverage can increase the vulnerability of both banks and borrowers. Internationally, this ratio remains relatively moderate: the World Bank notes that private credit to GDP is significantly higher in high-income and financially developed economies.
The deposit base in Kazakhstan increased from $60 billion in 2021 to $96 billion in 2025, despite significant volatility. After a sharp jump of 53% in 2024, deposits fell by 5% in 2025 but remained significantly above historical levels. The deposit-to-GDP ratio was 32%, compared to 35% the previous year. Deposits reflect the ability of the banking system to mobilize domestic savings and form a base for lending. The decrease in 2025 may limit the growth of banks' own financing, although the absolute size of the deposit base remains high.
The capital-to-liabilities ratio in Kazakhstan decreased from 23.4% in 2021 to 17.6% in 2025, with the decline being particularly noticeable in 2025. This suggests that bank liabilities grew faster than their capital base. For the economy, this may be a consequence of active expansion of banking operations and attracting deposits and other financing, but it also means a smaller relative capital buffer per unit of liability. If lending continues to grow rapidly, adequate capital will be crucial for sector stability.
Return on Equity (ROE) in Kazakhstan remained high throughout the period, at about 30% in 2021–2022, peaking at 36.7% in 2023, and standing at 25.5% in 2025. Even after the downturn in 2025, the indicator remained significantly higher than levels typical for large developed banking systems. For the economy, high bank profitability means that the financial sector is capable of generating substantial internal capital that can be directed towards further lending. However, consistently high ROE may also reflect high bank margins, market structure, and cost of credit, so the indicator itself is not an unambiguous sign of a more efficient economy.
In Uzbekistan, bank assets grew by almost 1.9 times, from $41 billion to $77 billion. Growth sharply accelerated in 2025, reaching 28%, and the asset-to-GDP ratio increased from 49% to 52%, indicating a recovery in the role of the banking sector after a decline in financial depth in 2024. For the economy, this expansion implies a larger volume of financial intermediation and potentially better access to resources for businesses and households. Uzbekistan's asset-to-GDP ratio is close to Kazakhstan's, and its assets are significantly larger than Kyrgyzstan's in absolute terms; however, like other countries in the region, it remains less financially deep than the most developed global banking systems.
The loan portfolio in Uzbekistan increased from $30 billion to $50 billion. Lending growth accelerated to 23% in 2025, but the loan-to-GDP ratio remained at 34%, significantly lower than the levels in 2021–2023. This suggests that lending expansion coincided with faster nominal GDP growth. For the economy, this means that bank financing became more accessible in absolute terms without a corresponding increase in the economy's dependence on bank credit. This trend may indicate a slight decrease in credit depth relative to the size of the economy.
Deposits in Uzbekistan grew by 2.5 times, from $14 billion to $35 billion, with particularly strong growth of 45% in 2025. The deposit-to-GDP ratio rose to 24%, indicating some recovery in the role of banks in accumulating the economy's financial resources. Rapid deposit growth creates a more stable domestic funding base for lending and reduces the relative dependence of banks on external funding sources.
The capital-to-liabilities ratio in Uzbekistan was the most stable of the three countries, fluctuating within 17–18% throughout the period and standing at 17.1% in 2025. This indicates a relatively stable balance between equity and borrowed financing of banks even as the sector expands, reducing the likelihood of sharp changes in banking financial stability due to growing liabilities. Nevertheless, the absolute level cannot be interpreted as a standard for capital adequacy without considering the calculation methodology.
Return on Equity (ROE) in the Uzbek banking sector grew from 6.1% in 2021 to 14.2% in 2023, then fell to 6.6% in 2024, and recovered to 11.5% in 2025. This figure is much closer to international banking profitability levels; for example, the ROE of EU banks in 2025 was around 9–10%. This allows the Uzbek banking sector to be characterized as having lower margins compared to Kazakhstan, yet being sufficiently profitable for capital accumulation and further growth.
In Kyrgyzstan, bank assets grew by 3.5 times, from $4 billion to $14 billion. Growth accelerated to 54% in 2025, and the asset-to-GDP ratio reached 64%, the highest among the three countries. This indicates a rapid deepening of banking intermediation, making the banking system a much more significant channel for accumulating and redistributing financial resources within the economy. Simultaneously, such rapid growth requires an assessment of its quality, especially regarding the speed of growth in lending, liabilities, and risks in the banking sector.
The loan portfolio in Kyrgyzstan increased from $2.1 billion to $6 billion, with growth accelerating to 45% in 2025. The loan-to-GDP ratio rose to 27%, the highest for the period, making banks an increasingly important source of financing for economic activity. It is important to note that faster lending was accompanied by an increase in credit intermediation, not just an increase in the nominal volume of loans. However, such rapid lending expansion makes monitoring asset quality and borrowers' ability to service debt more critical.
The deposit base in Kyrgyzstan more than tripled, increasing from $3 billion to $10 billion. Unlike Kazakhstan, the growth was stable throughout the period, and the deposit-to-GDP ratio rose from 31% to 46%. This is one of the strongest indicators of financial deepening among those studied, as households and businesses increasingly use the banking system for storing and accumulating funds. This trend can strengthen the banking sector's ability to finance the economy using domestic resources.
The capital-to-liabilities ratio in Kyrgyzstan was 22% in 2025, down from a peak of 25.6% in 2022. Despite the decline, it remained higher than in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This indicates a relatively larger capital base relative to liabilities and, all else being equal, a greater capacity for banks to absorb losses. However, high capitalization itself does not rule out risks, as stability also depends on asset quality, risk concentration, and liquidity.
Return on Equity (ROE) in Kyrgyzstan is characterized by exceptional volatility. The indicator rose from 7.8% in 2021 to 43.4% in 2022, remaining above 30% in 2023–2024, before falling to 15.3% in 2025. Even after normalization, it remains higher than levels in major EU and Eurozone banks. Such high ROE can support rapid capital accumulation and banking sector expansion, but sharp fluctuations in profitability require cautious interpretation, as they may be caused not only by fundamental efficiency improvements but also by changes in interest income, funding costs, asset quality, or capital base size.
In conclusion, all three banking systems expanded actively during the 2021–2025 period. Kazakhstan maintains the largest banking sector, combining significant lending with high profitability, although its capital-to-liabilities ratio decreased in 2025. Uzbekistan demonstrates the most balanced results, characterized by stable growth in assets and deposits, moderate growth in lending and ROE close to the figures of developed banking systems. Kyrgyzstan shows the fastest deepening of the financial market, especially in assets and deposits, but also exhibits the highest volatility in lending and profitability.
For the economy, this means that banking intermediation is becoming an increasingly important driver of growth in all three countries; however, the quality of future expansion will depend on the banks' ability to maintain capital, asset quality, and a stable funding base. International comparisons show that the countries in the region still need to deepen their financial systems, while some bank profitability indicators already significantly surpass those of developed markets.
