According to the report 'Future research on the role of research, education, and extension in the development of Iranian horticulture,' a 'technologically driven development' scenario was presented as a proposed path for the progress of Iranian horticulture by the Iranian calendar year 1420 (which begins in March 2037).
Iran's agricultural sector, which annually produces 25 million tons of products and employs over 800,000 people, is one of the most important pillars of the country's agrarian economy. However, it faces several challenges, including limited water resources, declining productivity, and a weak knowledge transfer system.
This study was conducted to analyze the future development of Iranian horticulture with an emphasis on the role of agricultural research, education, and extension. Data from the Statistical Centre of Iran, the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, and the Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran were used in developing the scenarios.
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, ARIMA time series, and Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations were applied to quantitatively assess the consequences of each scenario.
In the 'continuation of existing trends' scenario, employment in the agricultural sector will decrease from 2.07 million to 1.94 million people, corresponding to a 6 percent drop. In this case, the trade balance of horticultural products will reach $4.7 billion.
The 'technologically driven development' scenario made two key assumptions: an increase in the research budget to 1.5 percent of the agricultural sector's added value and achieving 80 percent coverage of recipients with extension services.
Based on the modeling conducted, under this scenario, the added value of the horticultural sector will increase by 61 percent, and 480,000 new jobs will be created in the value chain. Furthermore, employment in agriculture will increase by 26 percent.
Another result of this scenario was a 78 percent improvement in water use, leading to an increase in water productivity from 18.5 to 33 thousand rials per cubic meter. Horticultural product exports in this scenario are also estimated at $12 billion, which is 94 percent higher than the figure in the 'continuation of existing trends' scenario.