According to a study published by The Guardian, citing scientists, over 450,000 people globally could die due to the Super El Niño climate phenomenon between September 2026 and February 2027.
Researchers indicate that these human losses could be caused by heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and floods triggered by El Niño. The greatest threat is predicted in tropical countries, including Indonesia, Nigeria, Sudan, India, and Brazil, as well as in the Sahel region, Southeast Asia, and the USA.
Experts also suggest that the increased mortality linked to abnormal heat may persist longer, possibly until June or July 2027.
Forecasting Methodology
The forecasts were developed using peer-reviewed methodologies that analyze the monthly correlation between temperature increase and additional heat-related deaths in 24,378 different regions of the planet. This data was compared with projected temperature increases caused by El Niño for the coming months, using the average number of heat-related deaths from 1996 to 2025 as a baseline.
Scientists emphasize that such calculations allow for the timely identification of areas requiring immediate protective measures. Among the potential solutions proposed by experts are the creation of special cooling centers, expanding the staff of medical institutions during peak loads, and implementing additional protection measures for people working outdoors.
The natural El Niño phenomenon causes an increase in the surface water temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which in turn leads to the occurrence of severe heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and other climatic deviations across the globe.